Nationwide Strike to Ruin Lukashenka’s Regime Within Several Days or Weeks

• 6.10.2020, 12:00

The usurper's guards may arrest him.

Polskie Radio published an interview with Janusz Wdzięczak, an economist and expert in Eastern European economics.

- The refineries in Mozyr and Navapolatsk, factories producing wheeled tractors and trucks, the potash fertilizer plant in Salihorsk and some other major Belarusian companies that are the backbone of the Belarusian economy aggravate protest sentiment and create strike committees. The nationwide strike has not started yet. Nevertheless, trade union leaders report that workers join independent trade unions.

Lukashenka, in turn, intimidates people (who have publicly expressed their support for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya) and saying that the West will occupy their niche, and they will have no need to go back to work then. It may be a lie. However, many might have believed his words.

Will the Belarusian regime collapse quickly if the nationwide strike begins?

- Yes, of course, it will.

- So, it is an effective mechanism. Lukashenka may intimidate the workers for this reason and say that the West will take away their markets, start supplying their products, and then the Belarusians will lose their jobs if people go on a strike. Is this statement fair? Or is such a scenario impossible as the economy works differently?

- Such deceitful rhetoric is typical for Lukashenka. A good lie is a halved truth. Of course, if all industrial enterprises in Belarus suspend their work, buyers will find new suppliers, no one will wait for many months. However, the nationwide strike will reach its goal before it happens. The state budget and Lukashenka will face collapse.

- So, people on strike will have time to return to their markets. Will the economic collapse be rapid?

- Yes, after all, Belarus has no significant reserves. If a national strike starts, Lukashenka's closest entourage is likely to turn its back on him. The whole country will be paralyzed; there will be no money to pay salaries to the law enforcement agencies and riot police who beat up demonstrators. I think Lukashenka's guards can arrest him. The argument about the loss of markets would be valid if it was about a longer period. However, the nationwide strike will have time to overthrow Lukashenka earlier.

- Is it a matter of weeks or months?

- It depends on the scale of the strike. If all production, industrial enterprises, transportation system stops, it will take days or weeks.

- Will events develop quickly?

- The nationwide strike will deprive Lukashenka of power. It is hard to expect that he will manage to resist such a large-scale phenomenon in any way. Riot police will not be able to make people work.

- Besides, as one noted, riot police will not get down to work at enterprises. At the same time, we can see how propaganda aims at the strikers. One can notice propaganda theses on social networks. Trolls call on to give up the strike. "You resist, you go on strikes, and then all your enterprises will close down," they write. It is Lukashenka's rhetoric.

- It's also a continuation of propaganda traditions of the Polish People's Republic. When there were strikes in cities on the Baltic coast, in Upper Silesia, when Solidarity was created, Polish communist propaganda told how many cars, cars, ships and so on the country would lose in the end. The communists tried to show the society the damage that strikes caused. Now we observe echoes of that disgusting propaganda. They try to convince people, who fight for freedom, that they damage their country.

- They drive it into oblivion...

- If strikes are short- or medium-term, nothing like this will happen. On the contrary, the removal of Lukashenka from power and the onset of a new chapter in Belarusian history will contribute to the recovery of the Belarusian economy. Thanks to the reforms, its productivity will increase.

- Internet trolls draw grim scenarios. They predict the closedown of many enterprises by the new government as it happened to shipyards in Poland. But if the company is profitable, it will keep working.

- Now it is more profitable to be unemployed in Poland for a year than employed workers in Belarus.

- The thesis that when Belarus gains sovereignty and introduces the market economy, the enterprises will be automatically closed down is also deceitful. The idea is that Western capital will come and liquidate everything that worked well. Of course, some protective programs will be needed but market mechanisms will contribute for the better, not for the worse.

- Some enterprises will continue their work, some will change profile, and some will close down while the general economic situation in Belarus will improve. People will have an opportunity to find job in another sphere and retrain. Most Belarusians will feel the economic recovery. There is a phrase: "Capitalism is an unequal distribution of benefits, while socialism is an equal distribution of poverty". The second part of it describes the Belarusian realities.

- One way or another, profitable enterprises will surely continue their work.

- This is true. At the same time, many new ones will appear. In Lodz, where I come from, the textile industry was liquidated. However, this does not mean that now there is a high level of unemployment: new firms have appeared.

- Belarus will be able to learn from the mistakes made by other countries during the transformation.

- Of course. Especially since there is no need to use shock therapy in Belarus, changes can be introduced gradually.

- Belarusians can observe the result of the transformation in Poland and other countries.

- After all, they come to work in our country for some reason.

- Their chances of success are quite high. Belarusian companies of the IT industry have already achieved great success.

- The educational model of Belarus focuses on STEM subjects, so the Belarusians have excellent software developers, engineers and even chess players. They have managed to create several strong brands on the IT market, gained experience, and there are no obstacles to develop in this direction now.

In Poland, the IT industry is also strong, particularly in the field of computer games. Cooperation with Polish companies, support of Polish capital makes this sphere promising. Now it is difficult to deal with such initiatives because of the unstable situation of the Belarusian dictator and the lack of fundamental civil liberties in his country. The IT-industry could develop more actively in Belarus.

The agricultural machinery manufacturing sector also has a great chance of development. Belarusians have the know-how in this field. If their products are innovative, they will be in demand against the backdrop of a trend towards higher agricultural productivity. They could produce, for example, autonomous tractors that work without a driver. If Lukashenka resigned, the cooperation in this field could develop.

- Potash fertiliser production and the raw materials industry also look promising in this respect. What else is there?

- Tourism, agro-tourism, historical tourism. Poles, Lithuanians, residents of Western countries are glad to go to Belarus. It is a very beautiful country. Its nature has suffered relatively little from human activity, in particular, there is a vast territory of Belovezhsa Forest. Besides, Belarus has a well-developed transport network. Tourism could help strengthen the economy. However, Lukashenka's threats to close the borders destroy this potential. In such circumstances, the inflow of tourists is barely possible.

- What other areas of the economy look promising?

- One can mention many other points. Now one strong centre is enough to let an entire industry develop. Information technologies, developments related to artificial intelligence are of great importance. In the context of tourism, one can remember how much money Lviv could raise by welcoming Polish tourists. I wonder if Belarusian cities can do it with such success.