Russia Is Prepared to Write off Lukashenka
- 9.12.2020, 8:46
Why it is impossible to compare the Venezuelan and Belarusian regimes.
Against the background of protests in Belarus, comparisons between Lukashenka and Venezuelan dictator Maduro are increasingly heard.
He did all the same, and nothing happened to him; he remains in power. But Lukashenka is not Maduro, and Belarus is far from Venezuela. Why will Lukashenka leave his post much faster than Maduro? About this - in the material on the website 24 channel.
Let's first talk about the similarities between the two regimes: Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Nicholas Maduro. Both are autocrats who have usurped power in their countries and are ready to do anything to preserve it. Before the elections, Lukashenka removed his opponents, hiding them in a pre-trial detention center.
Maduro acted more gracefully - the Constitutional Assembly removed the 3 most influential opposition parties in Venezuela from the elections, which means that their representatives could not participate in the presidential race.
Lukashenka announced in August 2020 that 80% of voters had voted for him. Maduro was a little modest and ascribed "only" 68% of the vote to himself in the elections in May 2018. The voters of the first one and the second one did not recognize the results of the elections. Both in Belarus and Venezuela, the announcement of the victory of the dictators caused a wave of protests that continue to this day.
The "siloviki" and their own pocket armies are on the side of both Lukashenka and Maduro. Both the first and the second completely ignore the institution of parliamentarism. And that's where their similarities end.
In Lukashenka's case, these can also be officials, security officials, and an oligarchy that builds a business under the conditions of the tyrant leader's regime.
In Latin America, drug cartels are the real power
In the case of the tyrant Maduro, his regime insiders are drug cartels. These are no longer thieving oligarchs who do not care who the president is, as long as the flows do not dry up. It's not even an organized crime group. It is a state within a state with its own economy, infrastructure, and vertical of power. It is drug cartels in Latin America that are often the real power in certain regions.
In Venezuela, it is the so-called "Cartel of the Suns" that distributes cocaine all over the world. This is not just a grouping within the country; this is political Venezuela. According to the US Department of Justice, since at least 1999, Maduro has been one of the leaders of the "Drug Cartel of the Suns," which is engaged in the transfer of cocaine from Colombia and Mexico to the United States through Venezuela.
When he managed to come to power, the cartel took on a new life. According to InSight Crime, back in 2018, it became known that the Venezuelan leader had created a regime in which drug trafficking is subordinated to state structures and is fully controlled by the country's authorities.
Even the name "Cartel of the Suns" comes from the Venezuelan generals' distinctive signs: they have on their shoulder straps not a star, but the sun.
Almost the entire leadership of the country is accused of drug terrorism
The US Department of Justice accuses not only Maduro of drug terrorism. The control of drug trafficking is actually in the hands of the country's political leadership, the police, and, most importantly, the army. According to the UN, under Maduro, about 51% of drug trafficking in Europe comes from Venezuela.
Moreover, Venezuela is the 5th largest exporter of cocaine in the world. Therefore, it is not surprising that when Maduro's main opponent Juan Guaido called on the army to overthrow the dictator in 2018, they thought he is out of his mind.
For information that will help arrest Maduro, the US authorities even awarded $ 15 million this spring.
Back in 2011, one of the largest drug dealers in Venezuela, Walid Makled, while under investigation in Colombia, said that Maduro's general Hugo Carvajal was buying weapons from Colombian rebels in exchange for drugs.
And this is another factor that allows Maduro to remain in power. The cartel has it all:
money;
weapons;
influence on the electorate;
total right to violence.
Believe me, in Venezuela, protesters with balloons and ribbons in a minute would be swept away by a drug cartel. And the rest would be firmly convinced that Maduro is the best sun-faced president. Violence on the streets of the country no longer even arouses indignation; this is a Venezuelan given.
Maduro denies all ties to the drug cartel.
To blur eyes, Maduro denies all accusations by the United States of having links with the cartel and even pretends to fight drug trafficking. But he handed over the right to investigate drug crimes to the National Guard, whose leadership is at the top of the drug chain.
Maduro deliberately appoints the cartel members to the highest positions in the country.
Thus, according to the InSight Crime report, Maduro expects that if his regime collapses, it is the drug cartel with millions of dollar turnover that will lose the most. Therefore, it will fight in the most desperate way to keep Maduro in power.
In Maduro's case, he has a powerful transnational force on his side: not only the "Cartel of the Suns," but also drug cartels in Mexico and Colombia, are interested in maintaining his power.
That is why Maduro is not afraid of the most powerful US sanctions, loss of the oil market, total inflation, and impoverishment of the population. His main income is drugs; his main allies are drug cartels. And the"Cartel of the Suns" has much more money than Venezuela's budget. Therefore, it can buy almost anyone.
And what does Lukashenka have, who is on his side, and is anyone afraid of his leaving? Of course, there are those - this is, first of all, the oligarchy, which is afraid of losing its assets due to Western sanctions. But their total money turnover will probably not amount to the percentage of drug turnover in Maduro's entourage.
Officials of the Lukashenka regime are also afraid of his departure. But feeling the inevitable, they now basically sit back, keep silent, and do not particularly catch the eye, so that there are fewer questions for them after the dictator leaves.
Of course, security officials are on the side of Lukashenka. First of all, there are those who are soiled in protesters' blood and are afraid of prison.
And, secondly, those who have some brains left are already going over to the side of the people. After all, if they did not do terrible things, then already under the new government, they have a chance to stay in office and receive their meager salary. In Maduro's case, the "siloviki" will lose everything.
There is another important factor uniting these two regimes - Russia's support. In September, the Kremlin has already helped Lukashenka's regime; in response, it ran into the growth of anti-Russian sentiment in neighboring Belarus.
And all the injections of Russian rubles into the Belarusian regime did not help. In addition, the imminent sanctions against Lukashenka's regime may offend the Kremlin itself.
Putin's conclusions were drawn and morally prepared to write off Lukashenka. After all, the persona of Lukashenka is not particularly important for the Kremlin; he most likely even infuriates Putin; for the Kremlin, the beautiful departure of the dictator is important., as well as the opportunity to put a new dictator on the throne - younger and less toxic in the eyes of the whole world.
That is why Lukashenka is no longer invited to bow to Putin - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov comes to talk to Lukashenka to remind him that he promised to carry out a Constitutional reform.
The same Lavrov made it clear to Lukashenka that there would be no more money. And without Russian money, in the coming months, Belarus may face a currency and financial crisis and the threat of default.
And if Maduro and his drug money were not afraid of this, then Lukashenka does not have his own cartel, which would help him stay afloat.