Aleksandr Fridman About Putin's Visit: They Will Show Us Two-Sided Picture

• 20.12.2022, 10:50

Why does the Kremlin head need Shoigu and Lavrov in Minsk?

Putin, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Belarus. Why does Russia need such a representative delegation? Charter97.org spoke to Aleksandr Fridman, Ph.D., professor at the Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf and the Saarland University Saarland (Saarbrücken), about this issue.

- This is a good question, not easy to answer without trying to make speculations. Let's start in due order. Shoigu's visit indicates that the main topic of the visit is the Ukrainian issue and everything related to Ukraine.

In addition, Shoigu was recently in Belarus and seemed to have prepared everything. And then it turns out that his preparation was not enough, that personal presence was also necessary. This visit, from my point of view, shows once again that they will talk about Ukraine. Although later in their statements they will pretend that there was not much Ukraine.

As for Lavrov, he was also included for presentability, of course, to show that the delegation is "really respectable". I think that to a certain extent Lavrov's arrival is a kind of a "beauty parade" for the new Foreign Minister Aleynik. Aleynik must show himself and Lavrov probably wants to get an idea of what he is like. I do not think that Lavrov has had very close contacts with Aleynik before, but he certainly wants to compare the foreign policy.

There are also hypotheses, though I am very skeptical about them, that there could be some negotiations on the line of Vatican. Aleynik is a person with very good contacts in Vatican. Perhaps if there are some talks or consultations about Vatican-mediated negotiations going on there, then maybe that plays some role in Lavrov's arrival.

The delegation is certainly more representative than ever. There is a feeling that they will try to create a picture that something very important and momentous will take place in Minsk. I think that the picture will be so two-sided. On the one hand, we must not know what was going on behind the scenes, unless there is a deliberate leak from the Russian or Belarusian side.

We will be shown that the meeting between Putin and Lukashenka was planned and mainly concerned the issues of integration and economic cooperation. But by the very fact that they are bringing in so many people, and that there will be no serious information about the results, they want to cause a stir, to make people think about it, to make the Ukrainian side, the West and, possibly, the Russian public assume that now something very serious is being prepared against Ukraine in the Belarusian direction.

- What real results can be expected from this meeting?

- Lukashenka needs economic preferences, he needs even cheaper gas prices, he needs support for the Belarusian economy. He will try to squeeze out as much as possible, the more so because Belarus suffers more from sanctions, at least in macro-economic terms. Lukashenka needs this economic support, and he will focus on it in order to try to achieve something more: lower gas prices, credits, and so on. He has been doing this since 1994, there is nothing new, as a matter of fact.

Russia is interested in Lukashenka, of course, both as a frontier with Ukraine and as an ally, and as a potential active participant in this war. The regime is already a participant, but Russia's aim is to draw it in as far and as deep as possible. This could involve controlling the Belarusian army, controlling the Belarusian military-industrial complex, and stationing additional, perhaps unlimited, numbers of Russian soldiers at any time, so that Lukashenka would simply give them carte blanche to do so. It could also be a question of handing over control of the border with Ukraine to Russia. We can fantasize even further, up to participation of the Belarusian army in the military operation and complete subordination of Belarus economically and politically to the needs of this war. That is what they are interested in, as a matter of fact, as a matter of principle.

However, the thing is that their problem is that you have to decide everything with Lukashenka from today to tomorrow, because if you are planning something long-term with him, he will change his mind.

If we look rationally, all Western and Ukrainian experts say that potentially some actions are possible in this direction, some offensive is possible, but for the moment there are no preconditions for successful operation.

Rationally, yes. But if we set aside the rationality factor, who knows, maybe they might take the risk, even in today's state, of suddenly launching a march on Kyiv on the off-chance.

The prerequisites are bad right now; all international military experts say that Russia has no chance of a breakthrough and a successful advance even with the help of the Belarusian army. What is rational is that it is not reasonable to do so now. But who says Putin will act rationally?