Andrei Zubov: Generals Will Have To Remove Putin

• 22.02.2023, 17:48

In the near future, a coup will take place in Russia.

In what state is Russian society and government approaching the anniversary of the war in Ukraine? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Russian historian and political scientist Andrei Zubov.

— Russian society, unlike the Russian authorities, is not even formally united. Most Russians are watching what is happening in Ukraine with little enthusiasm, but with a certain resignation. Russian society is not accustomed to seriously discussing the actions of the authorities over the long years of the communist regime. Moreover, at the beginning, Russian society liked everything very much. The majority was in favor of the annexation of the Crimea, they also dreamed of the reunification of the former Soviet Union. In this sense, Putin was not mistaken when betting on this position.

But he was mistaken about something else. He was wrong when thinking that Ukraine would agree to such a proposal. He counted on a victory in a few days, an almost bloodless occupation of Ukraine, as the occupation of the Crimea took place in 2014. But nothing of the sort happened. And now the Russian society is confused, because it sees that “Akella missed his kill”, and very seriously missed. Not only in relation to Ukraine, although this is the most important thing, that Ukraine successfully resists and even went on the counteroffensive, but that the world community will be quite indifferent and tolerant towards its aggression. It was neither indifferent nor tolerant. Biden's visit to Kyiv is a triumphant crowning of this collective support not only by the West, because it supports Ukraine and the Far East, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the entire democratic world.

Those who know how to reason, while they have not yet lost this ability, they see all this and are confused. The minority of Russian society from the very beginning did not accept this aggression. The war that began a year ago was a catastrophic shock for many who decided to go abroad so as not to have anything to do with this government. The second wave was after the start of mobilization. In total, more than a million people left, although no one exactly counted. Someone came back, someone left and came — everything happened. But this is also a very large demonstration. Although a million people is less than 1% of the population of Russia, it is mainly the creative part of society. This loss is catastrophic for Russia.

The people who stayed in Russia, and especially those who left, now clearly understand that this war was lost by Putin. It is lost — Navalny said this the other day from his concentration camp, almost everyone is talking about it. There is no hope of winning. Some still have hope that Putin will somehow get out of this situation, others that the West will split. But these hopes are waning every day.

It turns out that Russian society approaches the anniversary of the start of the war with lowered hands. By and large, the same can be said about the elite. Representatives of the power elite, who can, are also trying to jump off or have already jumped off a sinking ship and sailed in all directions — some to Georgia, some to Europe, some wherever they could go. Those who remain understand even better than ordinary people that the war is lost and there is nothing to hope for.

The greatest disillusionment with Putin in general and with this military enterprise in particular reigns among the Russian elite. Of course, there is a certain part, like Kadyrov, Prigozhin, some KGB generals who want to win at any cost. But it is clear that this is impossible. Their support in society is also declining, they are irritated, arguing with each other and with the army. These are all signs of a general weakening.

— A year ago, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov spoke out against the war. He spoke not from an anti-war position, but from the point of view of the imperialists, who believe that Russia is simply not ready to fight at the moment. In a recent interview with Republic, Ivashov said that everything is worse than he thought, and Putin only contributes to the expansion of the NATO bloc, the strengthening of the West. To what extent is such an imperial position that all the problems in the war are because of Putin, but you need to act even tougher, popular in Russia?

— The fact that the problems are because of Putin is clear, because he leads the country. And the fact that it is necessary to act “even tougher” can only be argued by amateurs. Because, with what forces to act? Where are these forces with which to act even tougher? What to do? Just to drive, like the Persians, with whips of soldiers into battle? So the soldiers will run away. Nothing can be done right now. This is the whole problem, that no matter how loudly Prigozhin shouts, no matter how much he swings a sledgehammer, no matter how much Kadyrov shouts, nothing can be done. Ukraine is resisting, the Ukrainian army is fighting very well. This is recognized even by Prigozhin and Kadyrov themselves. More and more powerful weapons are coming to Ukraine from the West, and full financial support has been provided. What can you expect here? What toughness? There can be no toughness, you can only commit suicide, use nuclear weapons, after which Russia will perish. But I don't think many people will go for it. After all, nuclear weapons are not in the hands of Prigozhin or Kadyrov.

— Can such “hawks”, supporters of war and “tough measures”, come to the fore in Russia?

— They can, but it won't change anything. Beria, this bloody “Lubyanka marshal”, when Stalin died, took the first role in the state and, first of all, began to pursue a course towards the liberalization of the Soviet Union. It was the only way out. He began to negotiate the unification of Germany on a democratic basis and Austria, the end of the Korean War.

I think if Kadyrov and Prigozhin are not complete idiots, then they understand perfectly well that they have no opportunity to toughen up the situation. They can't do anything. They can try to do something, but then the army will simply sweep them away, because the army generals are well aware that the Russian army cannot now fight against the Ukrainian army, equipped with Western weapons. Or they themselves will change and when they get power, they will become very liberal, they will become the initiators of negotiations with the West. It's another matter that the West won't negotiate closely with such people. But they can try.

— What scenarios for the development of the situation in Russia do you see in the near future?

— The scenario of military defeat of Russia is most probable. It is already happening. The fact that the huge Russian army, which is considered the second army in the world after the United States, was not able to subjugate not only Ukraine, but at least a large part of it and Kyiv in a year, suggests that there is already a defeat. It will just come out more and more clearly.

Most likely, we will have the following scenario. First, there will be an attempt of a Russian offensive, which, it seems, has already begun or is being prepared in the coming days. This offensive, after some partial successes, will bog down due to the general weakness, dysfunctionality and lack of motivation of the Russian army, while the Russian army will suffer very heavy losses in these first weeks of the offensive. After that, Ukraine will go on a counteroffensive and, most likely, the front will collapse somewhere. Then the real expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine will begin.

This will lead to the already complete collapse of Putin's policy, and, accordingly, of Putin himself, because he will have no more arguments why Russia needs him at all. And on the other hand, he will try to reverse this situation, he will demand victory from the generals. The generals understand that victory is impossible, and in the end they will simply have to remove Putin in order to survive.

I expect some form of upheaval. If Prigozhin, Kadyrov or the KGB stand against this coup, then most likely they will be destroyed. Because it will already be a struggle for survival. I suppose that all this dramatic situation will unfold this spring, somewhere in April-May. And the military government, the military administration, will strive to end this war. Most likely, they will conclude an agreement with Ukraine that Russian troops will leave peacefully and calmly, but from the entire territory of Ukraine, including the Crimea.

After that, negotiations with the West will be necessary. With Ukraine, of course, too, but first of all with the West, because the people will be very dissatisfied, the collapse of the economy will be very noticeable at that moment. At the same time, military defeat will cause frustration, decline and irritation in people who still believed in the possibility of victory, or at least an honorable peace. And in order to compensate for this, the help of the West will be needed. It will be necessary, oddly enough, to help not only Ukraine, but also Russia. It will be necessary, at least, to lift sanctions, to restore economic and financial flows, which are now frozen.

This requires negotiations. It is clear that the military does not have any resources for this. Putin's leadership is disavowed as a result of the fact that they are accomplices in unleashing the war. Apparently, they will turn to some politicians, civilians, who enjoy some respect in the West and at the same time are quite respected in the current Russian elite. And that's when the negotiations begin. And then we'll see how everything will be. These are pretty unpredictable things.