‘The Chinese Should ‘Thank’ Putin For Invading Ukraine’

• 22.05.2023, 19:00

The Ukrainian diplomat told how China began to absorb the Far East and Siberia.

China continues to expand its “zone of influence” in Central Asia, taking the republics of the former USSR under its military and economic “umbrella”. On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a summit with the heads of Central Asian countries and invited them to expand cooperation, including in the defense sector.

What has Beijing demonstrated by this, and how does this affect Russian-Chinese relations? The Charter97.org website talked about this with the Ukrainian diplomat, political scientist, expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation Oleksandr Khara.

— Notifying your vassals about some of your actions is completely against the traditions of the Celestial Empire and its emperor. Looking at the pomp with which this summit was held, the imperial symbols, ranging from clothing, flowers and the ceremony itself, sinologists say that this is a ceremony of the Tang Dynasty, one of the classical periods of time when the Chinese empire was stabilized and was quite extensive. As they say, the East is a delicate matter, therefore, with symbols and signs, they show that the territory of the former colonies of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union is coming under the sphere of influence of China. Before that, we saw what was happening in Kazakhstan, how the “valiant” Russian paratroopers landed and tried to “peacemake” something there, and how they quickly folded after China gave the signal. This is definitely the end of Russia's dominance, no one was going to notify it.

— One of the decisions of this summit — China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan will build a road bypassing Russia and Belarus. What can it say?

— This is risk diversification. It is unlikely that Xi Jinping believes that Russia is so weak that it cannot solve problems with former colonies. In Belarus, there is a pocket dictator who is supported by the bayonets of Russian weapons and the local KGB. In Ukraine, they put their man, Yanukovych, but it did not work out. Actually, all this breaks the plans of the head of China. Firstly, it is known that the Belt and Road initiative was extremely important to Xi Jinping (the proposal put forward in the 2010s by the PRC for the combined projects of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road — edit.) in order to cut under its influence the territories located between Europe and China. The second is to make a broad highway for their goods, money and people to Europe, one of the biggest markets that China is interested in. In return, to receive money and technology from this.

By and large, it all looked beautiful. Europeans, especially from central and eastern Europe, were interested in Chinese money, in this infrastructure project. But in 2014, the Fuhrer of the Russian world wanted to finally resolve the Ukrainian issue, at the beginning in a hybrid way, and in 2022 with a full-scale invasion. In the end, he showed that this is an unstable territory and he is incapable of governing.

Therefore, the Chinese are trying to somehow diversify their risks. And most importantly, they should “thank” Putin that because of the invasion of Ukraine, this genocidal war, the Europeans are reconsidering their attitude towards China as well. They understand that Moscow and Beijing are similar in their aims and methods. As a matter of fact, that dream of increasing China's influence in Europe is now being dispelled before our very eyes. There are still some illusions in France that it is possible to trade, not to follow the path of containment of China, but in all other capitals they have already perfectly understood that “Chinese history” can be more subtle and clever, but definitely dangerous. Therefore, it needs to be replayed in the interests of free societies, the free world, and not to take the steps that were taken with Russia. For China, this is diversification, but in fact it will not help them much in the strategic goal. To grab some territories — yes, I mean Central Asia, but to cut through the gates to Europe and strengthen one's influence there — this could safely be forgotten.

— Another interesting news — China will use Vladivostok for domestic transportation. There is a lot of talk about Beijing's claims to the Russian Far East. Is this something from the category of fantasy, or can China really claim back its former territories over time?

— The difference between Russia and China is not very big. The only fundamental difference is that China is a powerful country that has a future and is on the rise. But the key point is resentment. They are driven by the fact that someone has done something unfairly against Russia or China. The Chinese clearly perceive the territories that the Russian Empire seized under pressure as their ancestral ones. The rhetoric will be the same as that of Russia in relation to Belarus, Ukraine, sacred Crimea and so on.

The most important thing is that these territories, the Far East and Siberia, are not just important as some kind of symbol. These territories are full of resources and have value from a geostrategic point of view. Naturally, China will slowly absorb them. I don't believe that for example tomorrow some troops will be introduced there. Why would China do this when Putin is selling these territories away for next to nothing? The Chinese simply settle there at a time when about a hundred thousand of these scum — it's hard to call them otherwise — were disposed of near Bakhmut. What I mean is that there are demographic problems in Russia, and it should do really important things in terms of its security. Strategically, China poses the biggest threat. Not NATO, not the United States, but China. And the short-term problem of this is precisely the Central Asian republics, since there are unstable regimes, extremism with an Islamic component comes from there. I'm not talking about migrants and so on.

Therefore, Russia has already exhausted itself, overstrained itself on the Ukrainian issue, now the spheres of influence are partially taken away by China, and after a while, perhaps, the territories will follow. But I do not think that it will be in some 5-10 years. When the collapse of Russia begins, it is natural that China will try to take over these territories, having its own businesses there, having a large number of its citizens there, legally and illegally, having great influence on the authorities. It is quite possible that some republics will be organized, conditional “DPR” and “LPR”. That is, all this will happen, but not in the upcoming few years.