Political Analyst: Lukashenka's Train To The SCO Gone

• 5.07.2023, 15:59

Nobody is interested in the dictator's games anymore.

On Tuesday 4 July, Lukashenka took part in a meeting of the heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The dictator expressed his desire to join this organisation.

What is Lukashenka's goal? Charter97.org spoke with Belarusian political analyst Anatoly Kotau:

- Belarus could have become a member of the SCO a long time ago, but this idea found no support when there was an opportunity to join the organisation at the beginning of cooperation. At that time, Lukashenka was not really interested in amorphous international platforms. He was balancing between East and West.

Now the situation has changed. For years, Lukashenka has been eager to join the organisation through various statuses (from a dialogue partner to observer). He has several reasons for this.

- What are they?

- First, all international contacts are now relevant to him. There are few platforms on which Lukashenka feels comfortable. The SCO can be one of them. He is interested in China, India and Iran, which have become members of the organisation. Moreover, the SCO implies (it was announced yesterday) the creation of its own bank. This is probably still a development task, but there are mechanisms for financing projects. It is an opportunity to attract funding that would not otherwise be available. Traditional financial markets are closed to Lukashenka's regime.

If yesterday it was Kyrgyzstan that talked about the bank, Lukashenka talked about the things that matter to him personally. He began by saying that Belarus was ready to supply potassium to SCO member states. First of all, it was a curtsy to China and India, traditional buyers of Belarusian potash.

Next, he addressed the issue of logistics development. Again, not by choice. Initiatives developed primarily by China, various options for the Silk Road, have recently begun to bypass Belarus because the risks are too high. "Let them all go through Belarus" is the main story that Lukashenka needs right now.

The transfer of science and technology has also been mentioned. It is clear that in the current situation Belarus is effectively cut off from modern technologies. It is interested in China, India and Iran as suppliers of technology.

Lukashenka is ready to assemble anything in the world: imperfect copies, stolen in some places. Any method will do. Everything that was said in yesterday's programme speech was the reason why the regime is very interested in the SCO at the moment. It is a tool for economic survival and to show that one accepts and complies with the regime.

I should note that Lukashenka seemed upset by this Council. After all, Iran was granted full membership, while the Belarusian issue is still on the back burner. The prospects for its full membership are vague.

- Why are the membership prospects vague?

- Once it was not interesting, when it became a little more interesting, the train left the station. All members have to vote on membership. Uzbekistan once blocked Belarus's membership, now other countries may be playing their games. Not everyone is fully aware of why they need Belarus in its current position. There may be more risks than benefits.

At this meeting, the Belarusian delegation expected to be welcomed with open arms, but that did not happen.

- The dictator called the SCO "a tool to confront the West". Could it really be a tool, or is he just wishful thinking?

- Let's say this is not the first time he has tried to create a group based on anti-Western interests. In order to try to lead it a little bit. Besides, the anti-Western movement is only relevant in Russia and Belarus. China, India and Iran can be added to this list, while all other countries prefer to successfully cooperate with the West.

Lukashenka's attempts to play on a different kind of liberation from "colonial dependence" are not popular. He sees, and seems to see, that everyone "hates the West", but each country actually has its own architecture of relations with this world.

Kazakhstan, understandably, has Russia as one of the main partners, but China is no less important. The collective West is almost as important a partner, because Kazakhstan wants to get bonuses from the financial market.

Lukashenka's fiery speech, which doesn't reach Castro's level, is completely empty when it comes to realising these perspectives. There are many such unions. The SCO is not the only platform where Lukashenka tries to play on the grounds of anti-Westernism and anti-Americanism, but all these games are, shall we say, of no interest to other participants.