Political Scientist: It Will Be A Hard Blow For Lukashenka
- 2.10.2024, 21:13
A dictator in The Hague can surrender his own entourage.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has adopted a package of documents proving the commission of crimes during the brutal repression in Belarus. This was done at the request of Lithuania, which is a signatory to the Rome Statute. For a long time, Lithuania has been collecting evidence that numerous crimes against humanity were committed by the authorities in Belarus after the 2020 presidential elections.
How promising is this case and what is the possibility of issuing an arrest warrant against Lukashenka? The Charter97.org website talked about this with political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets:
— I believe that Lukashenka has long deserved an arrest warrant. It's good that there was a country that did it. The only question is why they dragged on for these four years, because there are many victims during this period. But this is an important step towards restoring justice.
All other nations that share this point of view should do the same and at least sign the statement that was transferred from Lithuania to The Hague. I think this would strengthen the position of the parties. I remember from my conversations with some European diplomats, when I asked them why you do not take a decisive step and do not submit documents to the ICC, the answer was very banal and simple: they are afraid that their embassies in Minsk will be closed.
But I believe that in this situation, the countries of the European Union should choose what is primary for them — either democratic values and human rights, or some building in Minsk, where there is some ambassador or adviser who does nothing. Therefore, I believe that this is a challenge for Lukashenka.
And not only, by the way, for him. I understand that the list includes a number of senior officials of Belarus who are involved in certain offenses, including against not only Belarusians, but also citizens of other countries of the European Union.
Another important point is that even if Lukashenka will have some immunity or protection in the future, people who are lower in this vertical of power, who are on this list (and I suspect that there is the head of the KGB Tertel and a number of other characters), it will be quite difficult for these characters to get out. Because Lukashenka will not protect these people in any form, physically or otherwise.
They will have to answer to international law. And I am sure that the time will come when they will also answer to the Belarusian legislation. And most importantly, they answer to history, because this is a shameful page for Belarus, when the country's leader falls under such accusations. In world practice, no more than 10 cases were similar. I don't know at all how he lives with it, how he sleeps, how he wakes up with this thought.
— Lithuania is confident that other nations will also join this lawsuit. Can Ukraine, for example, join it? After all, it is known that the Belarusian dictator is involved in the abduction of Ukrainian children.
— This is a question for these countries. If we look at the trade policy of certain states, we see that they actively trade with the Russian Federation through proxy countries: through Belarus, through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and others. And the goods that enter the Russian market today, they go through the Republic of Belarus. Apparently, these countries did not put values in the first place for themselves, but trade. These are not politicians, but ordinary tradesters.
When we talk about values, in this regard, I believe, there should have been some statements from European politicians, leaders, Ursula von der Leyen had to somehow prove herself. They don't do that. I believe that there will probably not be so many people who want to subscribe.
Ukraine could, of course, subscribe, but Lukashenko talked at the last meeting on September 17. He said that he had agreed on many things with Ukraine. This underscores that he has some kind of tacit deal with Zelensky, either directly or through intermediaries, and they are apparently abiding by it. It is unlikely that Ukraine will be ready to sign this, although it should have been the first to file this claim.
— Is it realistic to bring Lukashenka to the dock? After all, the Belarusian dictator is not Putin. They can hand him quite easily.
— Yes, sure. I am sure that if a warrant for the arrest of Lukashenka and his closest associates had been issued, its issuance would have been quite, let's say, a simple episode for implementation, given the scale of Belarus. If a fee, for example, 10-20 million euros, was announced for this lawsuit, and guarantees to those people who would do it, then in the eyes of the Belarusian establishment, I would call it that, Lukashenka would look like an international criminal.
The arrest of him by some group of persons inside Belarus and his extradition to The Hague could protect some other persons from the power bloc from further prosecution. They could get an amnesty guarantee. This, by the way, will bother Lukashenka.
Even filing the lawsuit itself is already bothering him. And if he received a warrant, he would be very worried about this issue, because at one point the warrant can be implemented. The mechanisms may be different, but Lukashenka then enters the history as an international criminal recognized in the world. And so for him, of course, it will be a hard blow.
But now, I think, Putin is most happy, because he understands that he is not alone now. I hope that this action was committed by the Lithuanian government not for the sake of pop and some kind of hype before the elections in two weeks. I still hope that they had a serious intention and will continue this work.