Maksym Pleshko: Hundreds Of Thousands Of Belarusians Are Discussing This Scenario
- 8.10.2024, 14:12
Will the Ukrainian forces enter Belarus?
During one of the Forum panels, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, co-head of the inter-factional deputy association "For the Decolonization of Russia" Oleh Dunda, expressed the opinion that the war with Russia cannot be won only on the territory of Ukraine. The Ukrainian MP also said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine should enter the territory of Belarus.
What is behind this statement? The Charter97.org website talked about this with PhD Maksym Pleshko, the Head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:
— Oleh Dunda's statement is a real "atomic bomb" in the Russian and Belarusian media. Everything is clear with the Russian — they do not want to lose their colony, hybrid occupied through Lukashenka. And why was there such an effect in the Belarusian information field? Because there is a demand for this idea. Oleh Dunda expressed what hundreds of thousands of Belarusians say. He said what Belarusian volunteers dream of.
They have been waiting for this statement for two and a half years. That's why there was such a strong reaction.
Ok, so let's be generous. First, it cannot be said that this is a statement by an authorized Ukrainian official. Oleh Dunda is a deputy, a politician, he can afford some freethinking. However, he is a deputy of the ruling Servant of the People party.
Therefore, the first conclusion is that there is a demand for this idea. It lives in the minds of thousands of people, it is discussed in the kitchens.
He also says that Ukraine does not need an "occupation operation". It should be attended by Belarusian volunteers and the opposition. This is absolutely part of the Ukrainian strategy and vision of the situation in Belarus. I always say that the strategic interest of Ukraine is a free Belarusian nation, which is in allied relations with the Ukrainians.
The second conclusion is that it will help the Belarusian people to liberate the country. I emphasize that we are talking about theoretical scenarios. Is it possible today? It is unlikely. With the correct strategic preparation, it is quite possible. If we talk about the Ukrainian expert community, this is one of the scenarios that is being discussed. There is an option that Lukashenka will somehow voluntarily make concessions, the second option is force. These models are discussed.
Will Putin protect Lukashenka in this situation? Putin cannot defend himself, the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region shows this. Lukashenka understands this and he is nervous.
As for Ukraine, it is interested in stability on the northern border. However, there are forces and means to respond to certain challenges and provocations.
— The famous American historian Yuri Felshtinsky believes that the liberation of Belarus is one of the conditions for Russia's defeat. A similar opinion is held by the Ukrainian diplomat Roman Bessmertny, who calls the Crimea and Belarus — the pain points of the Putin regime. In your opinion, what will be the order of priority: either the defeat of Russia will lead to the liberation of Belarus, or regime change in Minsk will launch the process of change in the Russian Federation?
— I completely agree with the idea of Yuri Felshtinsky. Our expert center constantly reminds Ukrainian politicians of the extreme geopolitical importance of Belarus for the security of Ukraine and the whole of Central and Eastern Europe. Belarus is the balcony through which Putin attacked Kyiv. We have 1084 kilometers of the border. Almost all of our north is the border with Belarus. Therefore, it is strategically important for us to have a predictable neighbor there. For the Baltic nations and Poland as well.
As for the sequence of changes — we are used to saying that "Putin's regime will weaken, crumble, then there will be a window of opportunity for Belarusians." For me, this is a new interesting approach, that Belarus and Crimea are pain points for the Kremlin.
This is a really interesting scenario that can be taken as a basis.
— Can the issue of changes in Belarus become a subject of conversation during some peace negotiations?
— I do not have access to peace plans and negotiations with NATO, but as an expert and a person who is interested in geopolitics, it is obvious that Belarus is of key importance from the point of view of security. Therefore, Belarus will definitely be discussed in case of peace negotiations.
However, the situation is very dynamic. Therefore, it is important that Belarusians are ready for change. Ukraine and the West expect Belarusians to be a subject in these events. Therefore, the Belarusian opposition is sending a message to the military and officials today that if they are not stained with blood, they can still remain in their posts. Communication with representatives of the nomenclature is underway.
We have an accurate understanding that neither the military nor ordinary Belarusians will go to die for Lukashenka. Only the closest environment, which is covered with blood, is interested in the dictator.
Ukrainians and Belarusians are the closest peoples. Both of our peoples have an interest in our continued existence. After all, the Belarusian nation is a security factor for us. And if Ukraine survives and wins, it will help change in Belarus. The situation is the same with the Lithuanians and the Poles. Therefore, dear friends, get "Belarusianness" and get ready. You will need to enter the history stage in the H-hour.