'Lukashenko Looks Absurd'

• 10.11.2024, 22:17

The situation is not developing according to the scenario that Russia had initially expected.

After the US elections, events are not developing according to the scenario that Russia had initially expected. Belarusian historian and political scientist Aliaksandr Friedman writes about this:

1) The bet was not on a confident Trump's victory, but on unrest and conflicts in the US after the elections, which would distract Washington from supporting Kyiv and allow Moscow to significantly advance on the front and even bring it down.

2) The situation in the US looks stable: the Biden administration will help Ukraine until Trump's inauguration, and press publications and statements by people from the president-elect's inner circle give an idea of the Republican's plans: if they are implemented, Russia will retain control over the captured territories, but will lose the rest of Ukraine. The triumph that Putin dreams of will not happen and the lifting of Western sanctions is not being publicly discussed at all.

3) Lukashenka's euphoria over Trump's victory and his "peace plans" also looks absurd. If Trump succeeds and the war in Ukraine ends, the importance of Lukashenka's regime for the Kremlin will sharply decline and a much more active "coercion to integrate" will begin. But Trump will definitely not save Lukashenka from Moscow's embrace.