'Powerful Processes Will Begin In The Summer'
- 28.11.2024, 14:37
How Russia's economic problems could change the course of the war.
Forbes writes that Russia may begin to have personnel problems and a shortage of people. And that this can affect the front. Is it really a new strategy? The Charter97.org website asked to assess the situation in this sector of the front of the Ukrainian military analyst, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik:
— If we talk exclusively about the military component, I do not share this point of view when it comes to mass conscription and mobilization. We must understand that the margin of safety of the Russian Federation in the prepared mobilization resource is up to three million people – this is incredibly much. If we take into account that their mobilization indicators are 42,000 - 45,000 per month, we can imagine what other reserves they have.
There is another point, which, in my opinion, is a myth that supposedly Russians are capable of some kind of rebellion from below. They are incapable, it is impossible. Only if some "tower" of the Kremlin decides to use the crowd for a conditional transfer of Putin. That's possible. However, at the moment it is incorrect to say that they have already faced serious problems.
— And if you look at the military component — the war exhausts the working hands in Russia...
— If the Soviet Union did not cope with the problem of a shortage of workers, especially middle engineers, then how can Russia cope with this? I unequivocally share this point of view. This is especially true for the skilled workforce, especially in high-tech industries. For example, missiles are high-tech products, you can't supply people from Asia, the same Tajiks. Especially immigrants from Uzbekistan, where the largest influx of migrant workers to Russia comes from. Uzbekistan is now experiencing a certain "baby boom", that is, there is a high birth rate, there is a colossal increase in the population.
According to the calculations of the official structures of the Russian Federation dealing with this problem, next year they will have a shortage of workers in serious industries, in technological areas, and the defence industry is a technological industry. Since the time of the Soviet Union, they have reached 7-8% of the gross product of the defence industry. This is the highest rate on the planet. For example, the United States – up to 3% of total GDP. Although we understand that GDP is different, this is also a very important point.
So, the shortage of such hands will be about a million people, which is a lot. That is why now the entire information space is full of information that a large process of searching for the formula for the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from this war, that is, from the phase of the war that is now ongoing in Ukraine, has begun. This remains my view.
— Can we say that this is the Achilles' heel of the Russian regime?
— No matter how specific it may sound from my mouth, but the heel is not one, there are many of them. All this accumulates, sublimates, concentrates in one point. There is a serious point in terms of reducing sales of energy resources, this has not been cancelled by anyone. But they have changed the focus from the European market to Indian and Chinese, they have colossal profits from the sale of grain.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union (thanks, by the way, to Western technologies of land cultivation, the use of mineral fertilizers and wheat varieties), the Russians managed to enter the top five largest producers. This year they will have 140 million tons of pulses. As strange as it sounds, they sell it to the same Europe. That is, they still have a margin of safety.
But if we look at the situation in aggregate, given the technological regression, the decline in currency inflows from the sale of resources, as well as the current news that the dollar has gone uphill, then we can assume that somewhere by the summer of next year powerful processes will begin to produce results.
But here it is important not to stand in anticipation of an immediate catastrophe that should occur in the Russian Federation. Why? There is no present decision on the collapse of the Russian Federation. It really matters. Can this be done? Perhaps. Let's look at the history: Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in 1980 agreed to reduce oil prices, five years later they did it. They were negotiating it with Saudi Arabia for five years. Only Saudi Arabia can do that. They lowered the price of oil below $20 per barrel, this price held for a year and a half, and the monster collapsed. Moscow imperialism lives exactly as long as they have an external currency.
Let's recall the times of Nicholas I, when the empire almost collapsed. There was this riot of the Decembrists, there are many ideologies there, they say, they fought for freedom, for rights, and so on. No, that's only partly true. There was more economy there. The British replaced Russian flax with Indian jute, it is an analogue of flax, and that's it, there is no money – the empire has nothing to live on. The same thing happened at the beginning of the century. Europe replaced Russian legumes, wheat in the first place, with American and Canadian ones, and everything collapsed.
— That is, problems in the Russian economy can stop Putin?
— Of course, but these problems must be complex. Comprehensive. Only then will there be a result.