Confident Victory

• Petro Oleshchuk
• 4.11.2024, 15:10

It is too early to relax though.

Incumbent President Maia Sandu defeated her competitor Alexandru Stoianoglo in the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova. And the first thing that these elections showed was what an important electoral factor for Moldova are the citizens of the country living in the European Union.

By and large, it was they who determined the fate of Sandu's presidency. After all, before the results of the voting from foreign polling stations began to arrive, she had not won.

A 10% gap between the candidates is a noticeable and significant result. And this is a confident victory, and not some small one, within the limits of statistical error. But, obviously, it is too early for the pro-European politicians of Moldova to relax too much. After all, in the spring the country will have parliamentary elections.

During the parliamentary race, of course, the factor of Moldovan citizens voting from abroad will remain relevant. And they will obviously strongly support any pro-European vectors — this is an important issue for them.

At the same time, much will depend on how much the Russians will be involved in the process.

During the presidential campaign, one could observe a powerful Russian influence. Therefore, one can assume that for pro-Russian forces, it may even be easier to take the majority in parliament than the post of president. After all, during the parliamentary campaign, one can simply diversify support through various political parties. Some of them may not declare any special pro-Russianness at all, but only turn to the Eurosceptic agenda…

It is also not worth excluding that the Russians will play the old separatist card. That is, we already saw during the presidential elections in Moldova that the greatest pro-Russian support is in Gagauzia. Therefore, one can expect that during the parliamentary campaign in this region, declarations will be made about refusing to join the European Union, or something similar. Against this background, one can assume that some clashes, unrest, and the like will occur.

In addition, it is quite possible that the Russians will be able to mobilize even greater financial resources for the parliamentary elections in Moldova.

That will be one process. If the Russians have other problems that are more pressing than the elections in Moldova, the result for Chisinau may be different.

Now Moldovan politicians should focus on fighting political corruption (after all, money to bribe voters from the Russian Federation was freely coming to Moldova). And I think that at least some steps should be taken by spring to maintain the pro-European vector of the country's development.

Much will also depend on the position of the European Union, and partly Ukraine. We currently have a rather limited scope of opportunities, but we can demonstrate a successful fight against Russian imperialism. After all, the Russians in Moldova are actively using the theme: “look, if you go to the European Union, Russia will attack you anyway, and nothing good awaits you.” By the way, pro-Russian forces are promoting the same story in Georgia. And in general, the Russians will use this wherever they can. So much in the context of the European choice will depend on how successfully Ukraine can resist Russian aggression.

Petro Oleshchuk, unian.net