‘Spiral Of Silence’, The Trump Phenomenon, Two Scenarios: What Will Affect US Elections

• 5.11.2024, 19:54

Emotions are running high at the polling stations.

Today, on November 5, the US is holding presidential elections.

Charter97.org spoke with well-known Ukrainian political scientist, head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko about what can be said about the candidates' chances based on the latest polls:

— Polls are not a guarantee that this is exactly what will happen. They are a tool for measuring public sentiment. They do not provide absolutely accurate information. It is no secret that some people do not want to take part in polls, while others hide their real position (they say one thing and think another). There is even such a concept as “spiral of silence”.

— What is special about the US presidential elections?

— I will start with the fact that the US does not hold direct elections. When polls are conducted, they measure the ratings in the US as a whole. The president is not chosen directly by voters, but by the Electoral College.

In each state, the voting results are tallied, and in the second stage, the electors from each state come together and cast their votes for the candidate who won in their state. And in a state, the distribution of votes can be approximately the same, but, for example, Kamala Harris gets several thousand more, then all the votes go to her.

In the history of the United States (especially over the past 20 years), there have been several situations when one candidate received more votes in the country as a whole, and another in the electoral votes. Donald Trump in 2016, when Hillary Clinton received 3 million more votes than he did, and Trump won in the electoral votes.

The peculiarity of the current elections is that the campaign is very tough, aggressive, and the ratings of the candidates are approximately the same. Now no one can predict the victory of any of the candidates.

It is also worth mentioning the “swing” states, where there is no advantage for one of the parties. As a rule, these are the states that determine the winners of the elections. A situation may arise when in the same Pennsylvania or Nevada one of the candidates gets slightly more votes than the other, and this is what carries certain risks.

For example, I have repeatedly heard from various Western journalists that there are only two scenarios in the current US elections: either Trump wins, or he does not recognize the election results. After all, there was already a precedent when in 2020 Trump did not recognize the election results in some states. He tried to put pressure on officials, and there was a trial. Trump was eventually forced to leave the White House, but he always said that his victory was stolen.

There are many concerns now, preparations are underway for the second scenario, if Trump does not recognize the elections. Everyone remembers the storming of the Capitol in January 2021 by his supporters. Trump (unlike the Democrats) can act not only through the courts, but also through the streets.

The most dangerous scenario is the risk of a political crisis in the United States following the elections. This is due to the Trump phenomenon, the aggressiveness of some of his supporters. It may manifest itself after the elections — on November 6-7, and possibly later.

The transition period between November 5 and January 20 may be quite problematic. I emphasize that there are certain risks of a political crisis. There is a high intensity of emotions, conflict in relations between both candidates, two parties.

Another feature of these elections is that the elections to Congress are taking place in parallel. The entire lower house of Congress and a third of the senators are elected. It is very important who will have a majority in both houses of Congress.

A situation may arise that has been the case for the last two years, when the president represents one party, and the majority in one of the houses represent the opposition.

The outcome of the elections to Congress will largely determine what the situation in American power will be: either a divided government, or the president will have support in both houses of Congress, which is the best option for him or her.

But now it is expected that the government will still be divided.