Andrei Sannikov: Lukashenka Has No Chance Under Trump
- 7.11.2024, 8:33
The new US president will not deal with petty things.
Republican Donald Trump won a confident victory in the US presidential election. What gave him an advantage in the confrontation with Democrat Kamala Harris? Why will Trump's "shake-up" be better than the established "stagnation"? What should Ukraine and Belarus expect from the 47th US president?
The Charter97.org website spoke about this and more with the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign Andrei Sannikov:
— The result was predictable. Trump is well known to Americans. He worked with the audience that remained loyal to him, and also won back areas where the leftist agenda failed, such as migration, political correctness, etc. Harris did not offer any new agenda. She was more critical of Trump and was associated with two presidents – Biden and Obama during the end of their offices. She failed to distance herself from Biden, and at the last stage of her campaign, Obama appeared and completely ruined everything. He was a president who did not inspire confidence on the international stage or within the country. Perhaps Obama tried to do something within the country, particularly in the area of healthcare, but his actions on the international stage were simply criminal and led to the deaths of many people, particularly in Syria.
— There are many apocalyptic scenarios surrounding Trump's rise to power. Do you share them?
— No, I do not. The American system is imperfect, but it has proven its self-regulation ability. I do not think that there will be attempts to create a dictatorship in the United States, which is what ignorant people talk about in their apocalyptic scenarios. Yes, it will probably be difficult, there will be friction between and within the parties. It must be taken into account that today the situation is very favourable for President Trump, because the Congress, the Senate, and the President are completely in the hands of the Republicans, but it is not very suitable for political development within the country. The responsibility that lies with the Republicans is increasing. The US will have a new president in four years. It will not be Trump. He will not be able to lift term limits.
— There are many concerns about US foreign policy.
— In the last two years, it seems that the line of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has strengthened in the US, which is characterized by compromises and attempts to find band-aid solutions. He proposed scenarios for freezing the war in Ukraine. This is a very weak policy and a weak solution.
Today, Trump has shaken up the political landscape and forced the world elite and Europeans to make more responsible decisions. He made them see what the Democrats have done with their policies. Despite Trump's unpredictability, his appearance is good for both the US and the world as a whole.
His preferences are visible and it is clear which dictators and outcasts Trump will be in contact with. I do not think that Putin will be his great friend, maybe China.
As for Ukraine, it is useful to shake up the stagnation that has formed in relation to it, so that new areas of activity and new approaches appear. Both globally and domestically in the US.
— Trump is considered an isolationist. Is Europe ready to take on more responsibility in world politics?
— Eastern Europe will prove itself to be a more serious player, and this is felt in Poland as well. After all, the danger from Russia is great. This crazy aggressor Putin cannot be allowed to achieve any success, so Europe will have to take on more serious obligations and follow the goals it has set for itself — to curb aggression and deprive Russia of the opportunity to take similar actions against anyone in the future.
— The main concerns about Trump are related to Ukraine. Can he voluntaristically push through some kind of "peace plan" that will freeze the war?
— I believe in the American system of checks and balances. It exists and it works. Yes, there are concerns, there are real fears associated with what happened during Trump's first term. But the system of checks and balances works, and it cannot allow the United States to lose in Ukraine. What kind of great country would lose to a dictator who is at the bottom of the world economic table by GDP? The US is committed to the Ukrainian issue, because this is blatant aggression on the part of Russia, which has completely overturned the security system and all the treaties that bound both nuclear countries and NATO and Warsaw Pact countries, agreements on arms limitation and their use. Aggression that pursues the goal of reformatting the world order to please the semi-literate KGB agent Putin. Yes, there will probably be harsh statements and attempts to approach the issue unconventionally. But I think Trump wants to be a winner. This is his main feature. Trump needs to show that he is macho and can go against everyone, but if there is no result, he can easily roll everything back. We saw this during the first term. I think the second term will be calmer. Firstly, paradoxically, he is already the outgoing president, although he has not yet taken office. According to the US Constitution, the second term is the last. And for an American politician, the situation is easier. After all, it happens that from the middle of the term, both the party and the president himself begin to work for their re-election. In Trump's case, this will not happen. But working for results, for a political legacy will definitely be.
The presidency will not be easy, because Trump himself is a complex person, capable of what can be called "antics", but this is not always a bad thing. After all, the last year and a half of Biden's rule have been unremarkable. This is a gloomy time that was revived by Kamala Harris and Biden himself when he refused to run for another term, but there were no serious messages. There was criticism of Trump, but victory did not grow out of this.
— And who will counterbalance Trump? After all, the Republicans now control both Congress and the Senate.
— But Congress remains bipartisan. Both the lower house and the Senate. It is a complex mechanism. Senators have a huge staff, sometimes up to a hundred people. To pass the necessary law for the state from which the senator was elected, it is necessary to compromise on other issues, including foreign policy. These mechanisms work. They are quite complex, but on the surface, we see only the result of enormous work, firstly, of a sufficiently experienced staff, and secondly, negotiations with various interest groups.
The fact that control has passed to the Republicans should make the Democrats think since they have failed everything. The leftist agenda can no longer satisfy anyone. And this failure, I believe, began during the time of Obama.
— Will the United States take the same principled policy towards Lukashenka's regime?
— I think so. It is worth remembering that Trump extended sanctions against Lukashenka's regime when he was president. Trump is the president of the most powerful country in the world, he can talk to Xi Jinping, Putin, but he will not deal with petty things. Lukashenka is like that for the United States. The regime has nothing to hope for here. Another thing is that various swindlers may become active and crawl to Trump. But we have been through this too. Fraudsters can temporarily earn money on dictatorships, but it will definitely backfire on them.
So far, I do not see any chances for the Lukashenka regime under the Trump administration. Moreover, the longevity of this regime, which is harmful to us, Belarusians, has made it as understandable as a sack of rotten potatoes. Nothing good is expected from this regime, either from the point of view of American interests or from the point of view of Trump.
A good group of performers may form around President Trump. I know some of them. I recently came back from Washington, where I had interesting conversations with politicians about what to expect from the change of power. I think these people, who are supposed to form the backbone of the White House administration, inspire confidence.