‘And Then Trump Will Give Ukraine Even ‘Tomahawks’
- 8.11.2024, 19:45
Why did the largest defense corporations support the new US president?
A unique and significant moment has occurred in the history of the United States: Donald Trump will again take the post of president, becoming the 47th head of state.
What changes may occur in world politics in the coming months? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Ukrainian military analyst, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik:
— This event is of great importance, and here are two key points. Firstly, Trump is not a systemic candidate. He is the only US president who did not come from the political sphere, which makes him extremely unpredictable. This is worth emphasizing. Until he takes office (and this will happen on January 20), there is a lot of time left. Anything can happen in the political arena.
I will give a clear example. No one expected the Kursk operation, even I, a military analyst, could not predict that this would happen. But it happened. So many things can happen in these two months before Trump takes office that we cannot even imagine. What decisions will he make? Moreover, Trump's first presidency has proven that he often makes decisions not based on rational calculations of national interests, but on emotions. This is the first important block.
The second important block: election rhetoric and real policy are completely different things, which has been confirmed by thousands of election cycles.
The next point, and it is very serious. Donald Trump was supported by three large defense corporations: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon. Especially Raytheon, the manufacturer of Patriot air defense systems. One launcher costs 200 million dollars, one missile — 4 million. People who have tasted money, are they ready to give everything to Putin on his terms?
But nothing has changed for Putin. He needs Kyiv and the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood. If he does not achieve this goal, the war will continue. These people, the military lobby, know how to find keys to any sector, they are the richest people in the world, richer than oilmen and gold traders. Therefore, the global conclusion at the moment is that Trump looks more dangerous to us now, but his unpredictability may also be an opportunity.
By the way, a specific example from yesterday — I recommend reading Skabeeva's page on Telegram, I read it every day. This is a clear principle of warfare. Even Sun Tzu in ancient China said: “Know the enemy, know yourself.” And you need to know the enemy better. What did she write? I will literally convey the context of her post: “Well, yes, it's good that Trump won. He will offer us a formula for peace, then reject it, and then violate everything and even give Ukraine “Tomahawks”.
This is a crude thought, but they are not writing this for no reason. Trump's victory will complicate the process, but it will definitely not lead to a catastrophe. We have been communicating for a long time, and you know that I do not like to engage in fortune telling and talk nonsense. My personal position as an analyst and citizen of Ukraine is to be patient and wait for him to take office. But in these two months, the situation may change not only here, but also in Iran. Iran declares that a period of relative anarchy has come to the United States: the old president does not want to make difficult decisions, and the new one does not yet have the authority to make serious decisions. Imagine that Iran begins a ground operation against Israel. And everything is interconnected. Iran's ground operation against Israel will lead to a significant reduction in the supply of Shaheds and ammunition to Russia.
This, accordingly, will improve the conditions for us, even in local operations. At the moment, there are too many questions that have no answers. This is my honest assessment, I will not engage in political fiction.
— Is Europe ready — especially Poland, the Baltic countries, Scandinavia — for a more serious role in the world if the United States goes into isolationism?
— I would not put the question that way. Has the major militarization of Europe begun? 100% has begun! Large old corporations, such as Rheinmetall, the largest German company that served Germany in World War I. This is probably the oldest defense corporation on the planet. There are British, Swedish, and French systems.
By the way, so that you understand. According to the results of 2023, for the first time since the 50s of the last century, since Soviet times, Russia lost the first position as an arms exporter in the world and moved to third place. Who overtook them? The French. Everyone got a taste of money. Let me emphasize once again: arms production is the most profitable business that exists. So why stop this conveyor? Of course, it will not develop as quickly as we would like, but this flywheel is already picking up speed.
Another very important detail. Most European countries (the last of which is Serbia, although it is not our ally, but still) have returned military conscription. Lithuania has returned military conscription, Finland. The Germans, Austrians and even the Swiss have never abandoned it. The Poles are half a step away from its return. A practical sign, isn’t it? Everyone realizes that the militarization of the planet will only increase. Everyone understands that as long as this monster in the form of the Russian Federation exists, it will not be otherwise.
Well, I will be a little ironic: God save the King! Save Great Britain. We are definitely set for a serious confrontation with the Russian Federation. Even if, say, the worst-case scenario remains, Trump will withdraw the US from the G7 (but this will not happen), then the “seven” has already declared at least 50 billion in aid to us for next year, both financial and military. So we will definitely survive 2025.
Why? Because there are still some left over from the large aid package that the US allocated to us in the spring. There are still 6 billion dollars. In the next two months, do not doubt that there will be large aid packages from the US - 400, 500, 600, 700 million dollars.
Of course, it will be very difficult with Donald, but there may come a point of no return, when he gets up one morning and says: “So, Putin, did you agree to our formula? No? Well, then 500 Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine, please, let's continue talking.” He is capable of such things.
This is the phenomenon of this person, this is the opportunity to try to understand in which direction he will turn the big geopolitical cart, which is the United States of America.