Ukrainian Navy Captain: Russia Plays The Role Of A Monkey

• 11.12.2024, 16:56

There will be no Russians in Syria in the coming days.

Russians hide their ships from syrian rebels. The Russian Navy squadron was withdrawn to the open sea from the Tartus base. Captain of the Ukrainian Navy of the 1st rank, head of military programs of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" Pavlo Lakiychuk told Charter97.org what would mean the loss of this base for Russia:

— At the moment, there is no information that the Russians have lost the base in Tartus and the airbase in Khmeimim, but everything is going to this. There will be no Russians in Syria in the coming days. First, let's talk about the naval base. The Russian naval base in Tartus is officially called the 720th logistics facility, not a naval base.

It was inherited from the Soviet navy in the Mediterranean. There was such a 5th Mediterranean squadron of Navy ships. For its operation in the Red Sea, in the Mediterranean Sea, a number of such logistics points were deployed, which were designed to refuel fuel, food, other property of the squadron ships, for their repair.

It was in such facility that the floating workshop was based, the support vessels that served the warships. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, almost all such PMTOs in the Mediterranean Sea were eliminated. Except for one thing — the Russians managed to keep such a facility in Tartus, Syria.

It occupies the northern part of the port of Tartus. The naval base at Tartus was greatly expanded when the Russians fought in Syria. If you look, Russia seized the territory south of the Syrian shipyard. It is comparable in capabilities to the location of the Russians in the Novorossiysk naval base. This is the geoport where the entire remaining Black Sea Fleet is based now.

You can imagine the loss of such an object for the Russian Navy. In fact, in the Mediterranean Sea, they are losing their last support. A year ago, the Russians were negotiating and thinking about expanding their influence in the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, Yemen and Sudan, trying to negotiate the creation of another additional base.

However, they got a turn from the gate. However, it was about expanding the Russian presence in the Mediterranean. Now, in the event of the loss of Tartus, the Russians remain restless in the Mediterranean Sea.

Previously, in Russia's normal relations with Europeans, they could afford, in addition to this base, to refuel, deliver components and necessary things through airports and ports in European countries. Limassol in Cyprus was actually used as an auxiliary way of delivering some cargo for their ships. But now the Russians are unwanted guests there too. Putin did everything to be expelled from the Mediterranean Sea.

— If we take the global situation — Russia is losing the Mediterranean Sea, thanks to the sea drones of Ukraine, Russia has big problems in the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea has become an "internal lake of NATO". Does Russia remain a force at sea to be reckoned with?

— Russia is a big country, its navy consists of a number of fleets. This is the Northern Fleet, which is deployed mainly on the Kola Peninsula of Russia, and is the basis of its military power. There are nuclear submarines with ballistic missiles, the main component of the nuclear triad, until recently their only so-called aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov was based, which, most likely, will not go to sea. The main force of the fleet was concentrated there.

There is also a Pacific Fleet of two flotillas — the Primorsk Flotilla in Vladivostok, as well as the Kamchatka Flotilla, which is even smaller. This fleet is inferior in power to the Northern Fleet, but it is also a rather serious military force.

There are also smaller fleets — the Baltic and Black Sea fleets, but they were auxiliary units in the old days. The Russians understood that, by and large, they were locked in their water area, which was confirmed by today.

We do not take the Caspian flotilla into account at all. Yes, there are Kalibr carriers there, yes, they can hit us, yes, they can enter the Black Sea, but forces that cannot even be compared with the power of the beaten Black Sea Fleet. At the moment, it is not entirely correct to say that the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets determine the strength of the Russian fleet.

Ukraine (and not only it) demonstrates by its tactics that in the closed seas, in small theaters, the advantage in the conduct of hostilities is not determined by large ships. Large ships for small theaters are just big targets. This applies not only to the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, but also to the Mediterranean Sea, by the way.

As for ocean power, Russia is not in a very good position there either. The war demonstrated that the funding of the fleet did not meet their basic needs. Yes, they produce small ships for the coastal zone, as for large ships, then Russia is no longer a developer there. It cannot compete with the United States, not to mention China, which acts as a tiger in the Pacific region. Russia got the role of a monkey.

The large ships of the Russian Federation that it had, in fact, live out its century. This is the same "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov", which is in constant repair and, most likely, will never go to sea, this is the "Peter the Great", a nuclear cruiser that was the flagship of the Russian Navy, a Soviet-built ship that will be decommissioned.

Now they are trying to introduce Admiral Nakhimov into the fleet to replace it. This is also a missile cruiser of the Kirov class, built in the Soviet era, but it has been in repair and conservation since the 95th year of the last century. The other day it went to sea for sea trials, but this is also a bluff and just a piece of information.

Russia is no longer an ocean power, it does not have the capabilities and abilities that even the Soviet Navy had. This is also seen by its so-called enemies — the United States, Britain, Europeans, but also partners or allies, who can also be called in some sense enemies, competitors. Russia's competitors in the Pacific theater are China and India, which already have fleets much larger than the Russian Empire.

— How can the flight of Russians from Syria affect the morale of the Russian military, who are now fighting against Ukraine?

— From our point of view — positively, this is a good experience, how to return home — quickly, throwing everything that is stolen by hard work. The evacuation of Russian forces from Syria during these hours is an indication that the Americans did not flee Afghanistan so quickly. It turns out that you can run faster, and with great losses.

At the same time, there is information that the Israelis are already bombing Russian facilities in Syria, which have either already been abandoned or the Russians are abandoning them. We are talking about Tartus. Most likely, there the Israelis are bombing a Syrian brigade of missile boats, which distanced itself at the same base, just in the middle of the Russian logistic facility. This is a signal — the frog is not dead yet, but it is already being cut.