Lukashenka's Fears
- 11.12.2024, 22:10
The dictator is once bitten, twice shy.
Russian-Belarusian military exercises have begun in Belarus and will last until December 31. Just yesterday, Russia tested an air defense system there — a modified Buk. This took place along the Ukrainian border, near the Rivne region. That is why an air raid alarm was announced in the Rivne region, because they did not know that the Russians were launching there. Now it is clear that it was an air defense system, they were testing it.
I will say frankly, judging by what I saw, I do not think that any kind of Russian offensive can begin from Belarus again (and the Belarusians themselves — even less).
Belarus has been trying to learn at least something in modern military operations for a long time, because it only sees them from a distance. Therefore, the Belarusians are asking the Russians to come and help them gain at least some experience. Belarusians would prefer to learn how to operate drones, electronic warfare, air defense... They are very self-conscious. After all, Ukraine has experience, Russia has experience, the Europeans are training... Belarus has previously “ordered” “Wagnerites” for exercises, now — Russians.
By the way, it is worth understanding that the territory of Belarus from south to north is 500 kilometers. This is nothing for Ukrainian UAVs. Lukashenka is well aware and understands this, so he tries to be careful and not to oppose Ukraine too much.
Lukashenka is generally very afraid to do anything, he is what they call “once bitten, twice shy”, wants to do anything so that nothing happens and so that his regime does not collapse.
He has scheduled “presidential elections” for January 26 next year, and he is interested in everything going smoothly. For this purpose, KGB and local police raids are already taking place in Belarus, “checks” are being conducted in the places of residence of people noticed in protest actions, their relatives are being “consultative” work is being carried out... That is, they themselves are afraid.
One of Lukashenka’s biggest fears: that on election day, certain riots will begin, and then several hundred fighters of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment will enter from Ukraine in the direction of Homel and, like in Syria, will begin to “take” city after city, and local security forces will begin to go over to the side of the “rebel forces”. Therefore, at the ongoing “exercises”, the Russians are trying to teach the Belarusian military how to counter this. At the same time, several weeks before the official start of the Russian-Belarusian exercises, I saw how exercises were being conducted to counter attempts to seize administrative buildings. That is, they are trying to protect Belarus from protests.
That is why I do not consider these exercises as a serious threat to Ukraine. It is also worth considering that the Russians have neither extra equipment nor personnel to transfer to Belarus, everyone is at the front. They could not even send equipment to Syria, since there is no “extra” at all. The same with personnel. The North Koreans did not come to help because life was good. 94% of the wounded who return to the front again are also not because life was good. All this means that the Russians have a problem with people. Over the past two months, European analysts have noted that a trend has emerged whereby fewer people are recruited in Russia than are lost at the front. Previously, the situation was radically different.
Ivan Stupak, unian.net