Turkey Sets Its Terms For Russia

• Iliya Kusa
• 2.12.2024, 11:26

Timing is chosen for obvious reasons.

According to Syria. The aggravation around Aleppo is a return to the forgotten model of relations between Turkey and the Russian Federation, when power resources are used to create pressure and change the configuration of forces before negotiations.

Ankara wants to end the war in Syria on its own terms:

1. The departure of Bashar al-Assad or his political marginalization as a result of constitutional reforms.

2. Integration of controlled militants into the political system of post-war Syria.

3. Elimination of the Kurdish autonomous enclave in the northeast and north, including northern Aleppo.

4. Legitimization of the Turkish presence in the border area in any form, for example, by expanding the rights of the regions to cement their status as one of the key stakeholders in post-war Syria.

The timing is chosen for obvious reasons: the Syrian army is relaxed and weak, Russia is busy with Ukraine, Iran is occupied by Israel, and Hezbollah is temporarily licking its wounds after the escalation with Israel and the death of their leadership.

The loss of Aleppo will put Syria and Russia in the worst negotiating positions on issues of interest to Turkey, but it is unlikely to lead to the collapse of the Russian presence in Syria. Then there will be a new round of diplomacy and attempts to force each other to make concessions.

Russia has long realized that they cannot end the war politically without agreements with the Turks, Arabs and Kurds, so they have accelerated the idea of normalizing relations between Ankara and Damascus over the past two years. The Syrian direction itself became secondary for them in 2021 and even more so in 2022.

Iliya Kusa, Facebook