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Lukashenka Has Historically Failed

  • 7.12.2024, 15:55

ISW explained why the usurper asked Russia to deploy the Oreshnik in Belarus.

The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not increase the risk of medium-range ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine or NATO countries. All this looks like the Kremlin's increased rattling of the “nuclear club”.

This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report recalled that Putin once again tried to boast about the Oreshnik missile and Russia's missile potential during a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the “union state”. Analysts believe this is an information operation by the Kremlin for reflexive control.

The Institute also recalled that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview with an American media outlet on December 5, similarly tried to position the Oreshnik strike on the city of Dnipro on November 21 as Moscow's readiness to use any means to prevent the West's strategic victory over Russia.

According to ISW, the Kremlin’s constant boasting about the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to indicate the development of particularly new deep-strike capabilities.

“The deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus does not significantly change the threat to Ukraine and NATO, since the Russian military has long had nuclear weapons on the Russian mainland and in the Kaliningrad region that are capable of striking targets in Ukraine and NATO. Russian forces regularly launch Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, and Kh-101 cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads at Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War report says.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to advance its strategic efforts to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the presence of Russian troops in the country through the mechanism of the “union state.”

ISW believes that dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka is likely trying to preserve Belarus’s sovereignty vis-à-vis Moscow, arguing that Minsk should control Russian weapons stationed in the country. But this is an effort in which Lukashenka has historically failed.

The report notes that Lukashenka has publicly asked for Minsk to decide how to use the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, likely in an attempt to strengthen his negotiating position against further integration within the bloc.

“Lukashenka has long been competing with the Kremlin to determine whether Minsk can establish control over Russian military assets, such as the advanced S-400 air defense systems stationed in Belarus. State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council Aliaksandr Valfovich has also baselessly claimed that only Lukashenka can order the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in the country,” the report says.

However, ISW notes that Lukashenka said that Russian military personnel will continue to operate the Oreshnik system in Belarus. This indicates that Moscow will retain control over any ballistic missiles of this type deployed on the territory of the “union” country.

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