When Will They Knock On Lukashenka's Door?
- VASIL VERAS
- 9.12.2024, 8:09
This case has made many people do a spot of thinking.
One can imagine how uncomfortable Aliaksandr Lukashenka feels today. Not so long ago he congratulated Bashar al-Assad on his ‘success’ in the presidential election, where he allegedly received over 95 per cent of the vote, according to official data:
‘The victory in the elections is a testament to recognising your indisputable authority as a national leader who confidently defends his country from outside interference and fights to establish peace and stability in Syria.’
And suddenly that ‘indisputable authority’ is turning rapidly into nothing. Just as Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi and the like did before.
This whole crowd thought they would rule forever. But it turned out differently...
Sergei Markov, a member of the Foreign and Defence Policy Council under the President of the Russian Federation and propagandist, voiced the question that now worries both the Kremlin and Lukashenka: ‘What are the main political reasons for Assad's fall? What conclusion should other countries draw so that they do not collapse so quickly?’
The answer is obvious. And it was highlighted by South Korea. It is actually very symbolic that events in Syria and the Republic of Korea are unfolding in parallel. This allows us to compare the resilience to crises of dictatorships and democracies (with all the imperfections of the latter).
This century alone, South Korea already has its 6th president. The fates of his predecessors amaze with the richness of plots: removed by impeachment, received 25 years in prison (bribery, abuse of power); sentenced to 15 years (bribery); committed suicide; sentenced to 22 years (seizure of power), and so on.
It would seem that nothing good can come out of this arrangement. But the Republic of Korea is a prosperous state. Because strong institutions are the deciding factor.
The problem is that strong institutions either do not emerge at all or degenerate over time under the conditions of irremovable power. As a result, the foundations of personalist regimes inevitably collapse, often at the most unexpected moment.
As for the conclusions that should have been drawn, they are also simple. Assad did not negotiate and share power when it was still possible. In the end, he lost everything.
The Syrian tyrant's reliance on the security forces worked for a long time. But it was ultimately one of the main reasons for Assad's downfall. This is a pattern repeatable time after time. The only issue is when the laws of politics are going to knock on Lukashenka's door. But they will knock in any case.
Vasil Veras, Salidarnasts