ISW: Russians To Take Hit After Losing Bases In Syria

• 9.12.2024, 9:00

They'll have to get out of Africa.

After the fall of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's regime, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin may lose his military bases in Syria.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War, this threatens the Kremlin with serious consequences. For example, Russia has used its naval base in Tartus to project power in the Mediterranean Sea. Moscow used it to threaten NATO's southern flank and connect its Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean.

Analysts estimate that the loss of Russian bases in Syria would probably disrupt Russian logistics as well as its efforts to resupply and rotate the African Corps. Russian operations and force projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa would be particularly affected.

According to ISW, the Kremlin may try to use its presence in Libya and Sudan as an alternative, but RF's lack of formal agreements with these countries and insufficient infrastructure make them inadequate substitutes.

In addition, the experts emphasise, the collapse of the Assad regime and Putin's inability to save it will also damage Russia's global image as a reliable ally. This threatens its influence over the African autocrats the Kremlin seeks to support, and threatens its broader geopolitical goal of positioning Russia as a global superpower.