Atlantic Council Names Five Scenarios For Russia's Future
- 6.02.2024, 13:04
Disintegration is one of them.
The Atlantic Council, a Washington-based analytical centre, has outlined five scenarios of what the aggressor country Russia might look like in six years' time - in 2030. Dictator Vladimir Putin could remain in power, and if his regime is removed, events could unfold in very different ways. A complete disintegration of Russia and a "parade of sovereignties" is also possible.
The Voice of America writes about this. The report's author, Casey Michel, stresses that this list of scenarios for Russia's future is not exhaustive, but that these are the most likely options.
Scenario No. 1: Putin remains president of the Russian Federation
Russia could lose hundreds of thousands of troops and fail to achieve its goals in the war against Ukraine. This would lead to an "overheated" Russian economy and the destruction of trade on all fronts, from the Caucasus to Central Asia. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be Russia's biggest geopolitical mistake.
Under such conditions, frightened Russians will refuse to protest and oppose Putin's regime, and a significant part of his electorate will continue to support the war. Meanwhile, the president of the aggressor country will move towards outright dictatorship and totalitarianism, continuing to arrest opposition members and destroy opposition media.
In this scenario, Russia will continue the war against Ukraine, hoping for the collapse of the Western alliance supporting our state.
The Atlantic Council notes that in such a case, the current and next U.S. administrations should constrain the Kremlin's attempts to expand its dominance. Ukraine would require an accelerated path to membership in the European Union, and it needs to expand security cooperation with Kyiv and the supply of weapons needed to deter Russian aggression. "This implies the need for assurances from Ukraine's partners that they will continue to support Ukraine until sovereignty over every centimetre of Ukrainian territory is restored," the report says.
Scenario No. 2: Nationalists take power in Russia
Putin's fall and the rise of far-right nationalists to power in Russia is also possible. It is noted that the probability of this scenario is given by the attempted mutiny of the head of the PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin on 24 June 2023.
Such a nationalist regime might prefer to freeze the war against Ukraine, given its lack of resources. Moreover, it might avoid escalation with Kyiv and the West altogether and blame Putin for strategic failures in Ukraine.
The West should then continue to maintain and expand sanctions against Russia and use the confiscated assets of the Russian Central Bank to rebuild Ukraine.
Scenario No. 3: A regime of technocrats
A new regime led by a small number of Western-trained technocratic elites could pursue a post-Putin strategy. They would try to open diplomatic channels with Washington D.C., London, Brussels and even Kyiv. The technocrats would also reverse some of Putin's decisions to extend the presidential term and release some political prisoners, analysts say.
The prediction is that such a regime would abandon nationalist rhetoric. While refraining from direct criticism of Putin, it would point out the mistakes Russia has made in recent years. Such an authority could decide to retain control of Crimea but withdraw from the rest of Ukraine, abandoning the dictator's claims of annexation in September 2022.
A change in Russia's plan would be welcomed by many in the West, and some might even call for Moscow to be given a second chance, according to the Atlantic Council. However, Casey Michel stresses that optimism about such a government should be tempered - such a scenario does not necessarily imply a victory for the West's strategy, a rejection of the annexation of Crimea, or democratic reforms within Russia itself.
Scenario No. 4: Democratisation of the Russian Federation
Changes in Russia following the Ukrainian victories, Putin's cascade of failures and general economic destruction could lead to this scenario. Russian defeats in the war could lead to mass protests both in Moscow and in the regions. The protests would focus on the decentralisation of power and the restoration of local sovereignty, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, and democratisation at both local and federal levels.
According to the scenario, all these changes should happen quickly and build on the failures of neo-imperial Russia. "This outcome is one of the best the West could imagine, and it should be incentivised, encouraged and accelerated," the article says.
In such a case, sanctions are bound to be eased, especially those related to domestic political and economic reforms, investigative resources to enable the new Russian government to investigate the crimes of Putin's regime and its allies, and possibly the return of frozen Russian Central Bank assets in the face of Moscow's reparations payments to Kyiv. At the same time, the West should be vigilant against possible neo-imperialist and revanchist rhetoric.
It should be noted that this scenario, as good as it may be, is unlikely in the short and medium term.
Scenario No. 5: The collapse of Russia
The collapse of Russia is also unlikely in the short term. However, the likelihood of such a development could increase over time if Putin remains in power and the Russian economy continues to deteriorate.
A number of factors could lead to the break-up of the Russian Federation, from failures in Ukraine to economic decline and the repression of minorities. The process could begin in Chechnya if the internal struggle to succeed Ramzan Kadyrov escalates into a third Chechen war. Another possibility is protests in Tatarstan against attempts to suppress Tatar identity. Such movements could lead to a "parade of sovereignty" in Russia.
However, the report's author notes that this scenario of Russia's collapse is dangerous not only for the Russian Federation itself, but also for the West, which is concerned about the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal. In this scenario, the West should focus on building multilateral and multinational coalitions to manage not only nuclear stability but also Russian instability more broadly.
At the same time, such concerns should not hinder efforts to support Ukraine to ensure Russia's defeat in the war: "The West should not refrain from supporting Ukraine because of exaggerated fears of Russian instability," it said.