'That's A Signal For Putin And Lukashenka'

• 18.04.2024, 20:45

Iran's failure shocked two dictators.

Israel and its allies shot down 99% of the air targets launched by Iran. After that, the Western media wrote a lot about Tehran's military weakness.

Did Lukashenka and Putin see Iran defeated? Charter97.org talked to the head of the Ukrainian public organisation Zakhidni Informatsiyniy Front ("Western Information Front"), co-founder of the Belarusian Information Centre in Lviv, Yuriy Kmit.

"This is a shock for Lukashenka and Putin"

— Since the Second World War, Russia has not faced real military force. Russia and the USSR had several local wars, where they several times exceeded the enemy's forces and weapons. You can recall Afghanistan or Transnistria, these were all wars of superior strength of Russia with a weak enemy.

The war in Ukraine is the first conflict that showed the true strength of the Russian army, military technologies and capabilities.

The indicative Iranian strike on Israel is an analytical material for Russian generals, American generals and other experts, which showed several important points.

Firstly, 50% of ballistic missiles did not reach the target at all, and these are the same missiles that Iran made using Russian technologies. The warheads of Russian missiles are of approximately the same quality.

Second, the air defence systems shot down 99% of the missiles. If Russia wants to hit NATO or the United States with the same quality of missiles, it will have the same effect, 99% of the missiles will be shot down. This is a telling moment that the forces are unequal, Russia has no chance in the war with NATO, this is a shock for Lukashenka and Putin. And a good moment for the Western world.

"The situation is now unfolding in favor of Ukraine"

I generally consider this attack the third act of the world war between democracies and despotisms, between the Western alliance and the alliance of autocracies — Russia, Iran, North Korea. The first act was Ukraine, the second act was Hamas attacking Israel on Putin's birthday, and the third act was Iran's direct attack on Israel, the first in history.

I want to emphasize that this attack had no legal justification, because Israel hit a general who was allegedly in the Iranian embassy in Syria. But this blow fell not on the embassy building, but on the building of the house near the embassy, which is not an official embassy building. Therefore, to regard the strike as an opportunity to start a war has no grounds and no arguments.

The situation is now unfolding in favor of Ukraine, because this crystallization of hostile blocs, Iran-Russia-Hamas against Israel-US-Ukraine-West, clearly showed the alignment of forces and military potentials.

You can see that Jordan unexpectedly took part in the defence of Israel, helped by intelligence from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Great Britain, and France. An interesting alliance was formed. Against whom? Against Iran, Russia, North Korea and sympathetic China.

"Beijing is in a difficult geopolitical situation"

Another very interesting point that I would like to draw your attention to. China is generally disadvantaged by the situation that is now unfolding, because if Biden loses the election, Trump will come to power. Trump is an enemy of China, he is supported by part of the business for which China is a competitor.

The dream of this business is to put Chinese production at zero, so Beijing is in a difficult geopolitical situation. On the one hand, he cannot allow Russia to lose, because it is their strategic ally in the fight against the United States. On the other hand, they cannot allow Trump to win, this is unprofitable for them for many reasons, including — because of their domestic debt, the financial crisis, and a number of others.

China has a bunch of problems that need to be solved financially. If they are in conflict with the West, they will not have the opportunity to reinvest in debts or somehow service these debts. The domestic debt of the Chinese provinces has reached such proportions that the government was forced to prohibit the possibility of obtaining new loans for them. Nine provinces in China have debts whose servicing takes more than their annual budget.

This is a crazy situation that must be resolved somehow sooner or later. What awaits China? China is waiting for either a war or a debt hole in the U.S., because this domestic debt, $9 or $12 trillion, must be repaid with something. If this is not done in time, there will be a fall of banks, production, unemployment, blackout and revolution. They understand this perfectly, so the issue of ending the war is very relevant for them. But China needs to end the war in Europe so that Russia does not lose, and Biden wins the election. I don't know how they will get out of this.

"Did you withstand the blow? Then now you will get it from Belarus to Lithuania"

— Did you pay attention to the indicative points related to the superiority of Western weapons, how can this affect the militaristic plans of Putin and Lukashenka?

— It will be a deterrent. Let's just say, if Putin is insane, Lukashenka too, then their generals, analysts, especially the analytical intelligence services of the FSB of the Russian Federation and the Belarusian KGB, are not stupid people. They really understand the situation, and after this attack, of course, an analysis will be made, they will try this event on possible next actions.

For example, the next action could be an attack by Belarus on Lithuania in the direction of Kaliningrad, on the Suwalki corridor. They will try on how it will be in this case. The next action by Putin could be some kind of border conflict between North and South Korea, some kind of attack.

To understand all this, we must imagine that Putin and Biden are playing chess. They play chess all over the field, the chessboard is a map of the world. Putin sees himself as a super-player who says: "Yeah, you are preventing me from taking over Ukraine, I will make a Hamas move on Israel. Did you get Hamas? Now get Iran on Israel. "Did you withstand the blow? Then now you will get it from Belarus to Lithuania" How can you stand it? Holding on? Now get North Korea on South Korea.”

This is a big geopolitical game in which Putin considers himself to be a person like Napoleon and Hitler at the same time. We know how they ended up. I think the end of Putin's empire is near, the peak of his power has already passed.

"Ukraine removes these fears"

— In your opinion, how much truth is in all this "muscle game" performed by Putin, and how much propaganda? Is the Kremlin really as strong as it wants to seem?

— The Western world underestimates the propaganda essence of Putin's machine, its power is many times greater than the real military power of Russians. They have the slogan "the main thing is not what you are, the main thing is what you seem", this is a Russian version of the proverb "fear has big eyes".

For a long time, speculating on certain things, Putin managed to keep the West in such fear: Georgia, Transnistria, impunity, fear of a nuclear strike, and so on. But Ukraine removes these fears, if you look at the statistics, Ukrainians are not afraid of a nuclear strike. I think that the Ukrainian nation is the only one in the world that is not only not afraid of Russians, but simply despises them, is not afraid and fights back.

Why is the West losing to Russia in psychological warfare? In the Russian Federation, there are other approaches to human psychology, they feel the mentality of people more subtly. For 20 years, Russia has invested billions of dollars in corruption of Western officials and politicians, it has invested billions of dollars in the indoctrination of its own people.

“The only places they can't do anything are Turkey, the Islamic world, and China.”

There are two ways to live well with your people: to share money with people, as developed countries do, or not to give money, but to keep in ideological obedience. Ideology forces the poor to fight and serve the rich masters. We see such a principle of statehood in North Korea, where bread has been replaced by ideology, in Shiite Iran, where religious fanaticism replaces good income and democratic values for people.

There is not much difference between Iran and Russia in totalitarian rule and thinking. They created an artificial ideology of the "Russian world" and an artificial subempire, which keeps millions of people in obedience, who are poor and unhappy, but believe in some kind of bright future watching TV.

Russia is the only country in which the KGB-FSB institutes processed and trained social design engineers, there is no such profession anywhere in the world. So they are psychologically designing elections in the United States with their bots, designing the uprising of the "yellow vests" in France, designing protests against aid to Ukraine in Germany, they are everywhere.

The only places where they can not somehow manifest themselves are Turkey, the Islamic world and China, where Russian agents are very quickly exposed because of the sharp difference and dissimilarity of mentality.

In military terms, they did not make any progress, because the territories they occupied in Ukraine, these mini-successes, were achieved by a crazy amount of weapons and manpower losses. This cannot be called a success. If you take a kilometer of territory with thousands of lives, it is not a success, it is a defeat.