Lukashenka Became Putin's Tame Spitz
- Natallia Radzina
- 8.04.2024, 12:54
There are several versions of why the dictator started talking about the war.
Is there a threat of a repeated Russian offensive on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus? Does Lukashenka control his army? What is behind the dictator's words about preparing for war? Natallia Radzina, Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, told about this and more in an interview with Ukrainian Radio NV.
Natallia Radzina commented on the information of experts from the American Robert Lansing Institute (RLI) that Russian special services are preparing a terrorist attack on the territory of Belarus in order to "draw Lukashenka into the war":
– Honestly, I just don't see the point. A few moments confuse me. What does it mean to "drag Belarus into the war"? Belarus has been involved in the war for three years already. It is possible to draw it even more (and this is to force the Belarusian army into the war) without the terrorist attacks organized by the FSB. If Putin wants it, Lukashenka will not be able to refuse him, the Belarusian army will enter the war. In the meantime, Russia is using Belarus as a base.
You need to understand that Belarusians are different from Russians. We already had the experience of our terrorist attacks organized by the authorities, as it was in April 2011, when there was an explosion in the Minsk Underground to pacify the people after the falsified 2010 elections and the devaluation of the ruble. Today, no one will believe that Ukraine can organize a terrorist attack on the territory of Belarus.
How likely is a repeated offensive against Kyiv from the territory of Belarus? The Belarusian journalist believes that this is a very real scenario:
– Lukashenka will not take such a step on his own, it will be Putin's decision. I would not rule out such a scenario. If they need to capture Kyiv, to go to Ukraine from the north, this can happen. I understand that today the border is strengthened, it is quite difficult to enter Ukraine, there are minefields there. However, what will prevent the Russians from letting their troops into these fields? Let's recall the experience of the Second World War: Zhukov's strategy, "meat assaults".
I'd like to remind you that Russian nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of Belarus. This repeated offensive against Kyiv from the territory of Belarus may be preceded by a tactical nuclear strike.
I understand that the Belarusian army can't answer "NO" today. I consider some kind of soldier's riots and disobedience unlikely. Firstly, the Belarusian army is strongly integrated into the Russian army. Lukashenka can't control the Belarusian army and law enforcement agencies on his own today. If there is such an order, they will go to Ukraine together with Russian troops. The only thing I hope is that the Belarusians will massively surrender and will not fight against the Ukrainians.
Natallia Radzina also spoke about the preparations for the war in Belarus:
– There are constant military training exercises, including reservists. Now the draft notes will be delivered not only in the paper version, but also via SMS. There are exercises of territorial defence, the formation of so-called people's militias. They are former Belarusian security forces and people who are loyal to the regime. The preparations for the war that Lukashenka spoke about are taking place now really. But it is clear that no one is going to attack Belarus – neither Ukraine nor NATO. There are several versions of why he said it.
First, it serves to strengthen the regime. The search for external enemies is a common phenomenon among dictators. On the other hand, it is obvious that Lukashenka understands that the territory of Belarus can become a field for military operations. He understands that there are intentions of the Kremlin to carry out attacks from the territory of Belarus on Ukraine and against Western nations. We see military exercises taking place on the border with Lithuania. There was information about the deployment of the 6th Mechanized Brigade on the border with Poland, which was brought to combat readiness.
Natallia Radzina believes that Lukashenka is dangerous and it's better not to trust him:
– I believe that in the current situation, it's better not to wait for the gun that hangs on the wall to fire. You need to understand that Lukashenka is dangerous, you cannot trust him. No agreements work with him.
It is necessary to create a significant Belarusian military unit in Ukraine – a division based on the Kalinouski Regiment. Believe me, Belarusians will go to war in much greater numbers if they know that there is a chance to liberate their country.
I am also impressed by the proposal made by the American historian Yuri Felshtinsky. He said that because the level of threats emanating from the territory of Belarus has increased enormously, including due to the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons, it is necessary to think about the deployment of NATO forces in Belarus.
By the way, he spoke about three conditions that can lead Ukraine to victory.
This, of course, is the supply of all necessary weapons, including long-range missiles. The second is the ability to hit targets, including Moscow. The third is the liberation of Belarus, because this balcony hanging over Ukraine is very dangerous.
The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website warns Kyiv against illusions about the possibility of "reaching an agreement with Lukashenka":
– For all these thirty years, Lukashenka has been holding power thanks to the support of Russia. He also found himself in the situation of a puppet, since the Russian Federation fed this regime and supported it. In 2020, when a million Belarusians came out to protest, Lukashenka resisted only thanks to Russian help. In exchange, he became absolutely loyal to the Kremlin.
Today he cannot say to Putin: “Thank you, Vova, for your support. For what you gave my regime. I'm sorry, I'm on my own." That won't work. He understands that he will live after this for an hour or two, the night is the maximum. Lukashenka is Putin's tame Spitz today. Nothing more.