Yuri Kmit: The West Has Decided It’s Time To End Lukashenka

• 10.05.2024, 19:24

What will be the response to the nuclear “exercises” of the two dictators?

Belarus joins Russia in the second stage of nuclear exercises. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced this in Moscow. According to him, corresponding instructions have been given to the defense ministries and general staffs of the two countries. Lukashenka is scaring the world with a nuclear apocalypse.

Can two dictators go for broke? The Charter97.org website spoke about this and more with the head of the Ukrainian public organization “Forward Information Front”, co-founder of the Belarusian Information Center in Lviv, Yuri Kmit.

“Putin was terribly worried about this”

— We see the West’s response to Emmanuel Macron’s escalation. The President of France has recently been actively promoting the topic of the possible introduction of NATO troops into the territory of Ukraine. We know that his presidential term is ending, and he cannot run for a third time, so Macron is trying on the role of the new leader of Europe.

The UK is no longer a member of the European Union, and Germany is in a leadership crisis after Angela Merkel. Scholz's party is losing popularity. Most likely, the Christian Democrats will come to power again in the next elections. At this moment, Macron’s figure looks more organized; he is a contender for leadership in Europe. Macron is ambitious, still quite young, wants to build himself the role of some French Napoleon Bonaparte in the fight against Russia, but with a claim to victory.

Putin is terribly worried about this; he understands that he could actually go as far as stationing NATO troops in Ukraine. On the other hand, he sees how Biden crosses out all the “red lines” that Russia draws. They are now playing a kind of game: Putin draws “red lines”, and Biden paints them over.

Russia has nothing to offer other than nuclear weapons. What else does the Kremlin has to scare? The use of it? No one will understand this, it will be a war against everyone. China was one of the first to clearly say that it will not allow, does not accept and will not accept even blackmail with nuclear weapons, not to mention higher levels of escalation.

Putin has only two options left: military exercises with nuclear weapons and the threat of direct use. But he is afraid to use it, because something that often happens with the Russian Aerospace Forces may happen. A bomb with nuclear weapons could fall on Russian territory, some fastening could fall out, or an airplane could crash due to a malfunction. He will bomb himself with these nuclear weapons.

“Lukashenka hopes that Putin will come to a head”

What is Lukashenka doing? He plays a game with Putin, who says: “Go to Ukraine, help me take it over.” To which Lukashenka replies: “No, no. We are not going to Ukraine, we are at war with Poland, with the West. Belarus is under threat of invasion from Lithuania and Poland.” He specifically chose to behave like such an idiot in order to defend himself from Putin’s pressure.

Playing along with all these bad ideas of Putin directed against the West is just a way for Lukashenka not to help in the war against Ukraine. He must show his work, that he is engaged in intimidating the West together with him, and at the same time takes military orders and receives funding. Lukashenka even boasts that he is an accomplice, a co-aggressor.

But inside, Lukashenka hopes that Putin will play this out, Russia will begin to fall, and then he will have the opportunity to pursue an independent policy. He will run to the West, fall to his knees and say: “I didn’t give him troops, I fooled him, he’s an idiot, I laughed at him. I was with you, don’t you understand, it was all irony and sarcasm.” Well, just “95 Kvartal” performed by Lukashenka, only on the Belarusian political scene. You will see, we will live to see how he will explain it all.

“This is the last warning”

— How should the West react in this situation, should we believe the Belarusian dictator?

— The West understands everything and reacts accordingly; it simply does not pay attention to Lukashenka. Have you seen any Western leaders comment on his actions at all? No one considers it necessary to even comment on all this nonsense from Lukashenka.

They were already tired and decided that it was time to end it. Therefore, at the meeting, the Western leaders conveyed their position to the Chinese leader, and a whole basis for negotiations was developed there. And Xi Jinping will give this position to Putin on May 13, and in such a way that this is the last warning. Like, I’m trying to save your reputation here, I’m trying to choose the best possible position for you, all the next offers will be much worse than what you received today.

Xi came to France to bargain for some goodies for which he would set conditions for Putin. Moreover, Xi will benefit from both sides — from America and Europe he will receive his preferences for participating in the negotiations and putting pressure on Putin, and from the head of the Kremlin he will receive his preferences in the form of economic benefits. To the West, the leader of China says: “Well, it’s only because of our great friendship, because of our large trade turnover, that I am going to put pressure on my partner and ally. Don’t think that I’m with you, I’m just doing you a favor, but in return you owe me this, that and that.” And Xi tells Putin that he is his friend and ally, who is bargaining for better conditions for Russia.

“We are now witnessing the beginning of the agony of the Putin regime”

You will see all this after May 13, what kind of face Putin will have and what the consequences of negotiations with China will be. If Putin does not understand that this is the last proposal, Ukraine will be provided with missiles with a range of a thousand kilometers, one and a half thousand kilometers, Tomahawks, F-22, F-35 and further on the list.

America has taken a very tough position on the economic blockade of Russia on the territory of the Chinese economy, on the territory of the Turkish economy, and on the territory of the Saudi Arabian economy. Putin’s ability to receive sanctioned goods and bank transfers is gradually being reduced, and there is talk of blocking the exits of “grey” oil tankers from the Baltic Sea.

Putin already realized that no blackmail had produced any results, that they simply stopped being afraid of him, and this frightened him. We are now witnessing the beginning of the agony of the Putin regime, which, unfortunately, will continue for a long time, because everyone knows his obstinacy.

One of the options for further developments is that Putin can continue to raise this escalation bar to the highest level, threatening to shoot himself in the foot, because Russia’s military potential is technically dangerous for its own population.

You know that the last year in which the production of military-grade plutonium took place in the USSR was 1991. The scientifically proven validity period of all these nuclear substances, studied by experts, is 30 years. 34 years have already passed, it is unknown how they will behave further. It’s just that Soviet scientists did not reach such a level of forecasts; they didn’t have that much time. Russian scientists have lost all this; they do not have the potential that the Soviet Union had.

It is also worth noting that Russia does not have its own nuclear weapons; these are the nuclear weapons of the Soviet Union, which belonged to 16 republics. Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus abandoned those nuclear weapons that did not belong to them, but were on their territory, demanding security guarantees in return. For Ukraine it was the Budapest Memorandum. We know what Ukraine got in the end. War and meanness on the part of Russia.

And according to the logic of this memorandum, the world must return nuclear weapons to Ukraine and take away Soviet weapons from Russia. Russia received Ukrainian nuclear warheads, but did not fulfill its part of the agreement on security guarantees. It follows that any of the leaders of four countries — China, Great Britain, France and the United States — can remember this and say: “We must return nuclear weapons to Ukraine, because it voluntarily gave them up in exchange for security, but received war.” Common sense dictates that Russia should lose its stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons due to its inappropriate behavior, aggression and inability to use them.