AFU Colonel: Special Forces Enter Ukraine From Belarus
- 17.05.2024, 14:26
SOF are looking for weaknesses.
Belarusian railway workers report that the military communications bodies of Belarus and Russia are actively cooperating on the organization of the transfer of Russian weapons, ammunition and military personnel by rail to the territory of our country.
What could be the reason for this transfer? Charter97.org spoke about this with a military expert, Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Hrabsky:
— If we take the simplest option, based on the current situation on the front line, then we are talking about preparing for the exercises. The Russian troops are transferred to participate in the exercises and, in general, these are planned activities.
If we consider other theories, we cannot exclude that, as a result of the exercises, a decision will be made to leave the specified contingent on the territory of Belarus.
There is one "but" that restrains us from any overthinking about the deployment of the troops. You see, if we talk about the creation of a group, then it is also necessary to have confirmation that an infrastructure is being created, where these troops will be deployed.
This is not a computer game: people have to live somewhere, eat something, and so on. We do not observe such things. Time will tell which algorithm of actions we are talking about: whether it is a drill (short-term stay) or a long-term stay.
— Is Lukashenka's army dangerous? Many underestimate it, talk about weakness. What does the situation really look like?
— Let's be frank: Lukashenka is not talking about any army, but about the Belarusian corps of the Russian army. I insist on this, because we know that the true patriots of Belarus are now fighting on the side of Ukraine. We are talking about the occupation corps of collaborators.
The possibility of independent actions of the Belarusian corps against Ukraine or NATO member states is excluded. Of course, we are talking about the joint actions of this Belarusian corps with the Russian troops as a unit providing additional resources.
You are absolutely right here, we in no way consider the issue of underestimating this Belarusian corps. After all, since April 2022, we have been observing constant measures to strengthen the combat and mobilization readiness of this unit.
We can assume that these measures indicate an increase in the capabilities of this corps at least twice.
I emphasize once again that we are not talking about the independent actions of this corps, but rather as an additional element to the grouping of Russian troops.
— In one of the interviews, you said that sabotage and reconnaissance groups enter the territory of Ukraine from Belarus. Do these visits continue? For what purpose are these actions carried out?
— The constant presence of the SOF units near the borders of Ukraine is quite strong evidence that they carry out (this is the responsibility of any such unit) intelligence activities on the territory of Ukraine, probing capabilities. Checking weaknesses and testing them, if any.
We don't know if they found something or not, because the work is underway. You see, in Ukraine, I have long perceived the situation on the border with Belarus as troubled, as an element of the front of the struggle against the Russian Federation, which occupied Belarus.
In this case, it is impossible not to consider the work of the sabotage units of this corps against Ukraine. But today we are not talking about the fact that we see some serious signs of preparation for the introduction of some aggressive actions in this direction. In the next 3-5 months, we see no reason to talk about unleashing a new front from the territory of Belarus.
I note that today we have no grounds and no need to strike at targets on the territory of Belarus. This is a rearrangement of our resources, this is a rather difficult game, we do not have so many opportunities that could ensure the unhindered suppression of any object.
Moreover, with regard to refineries that are used by the Russians, we have other options. For example, strikes on Smolensk, which is a transport hub.
But, of course, if any aggressive actions are unleashed from this direction (and we consider it potentially threatening), the response will follow for sure.