Roman Svitan: One AFU Operation Task Is Related To Belarusian Refineries
- 14.08.2024, 18:38
Taking the city of Sudzha changes a lot.
A well-known military expert, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the reserve, Roman Svitan, named five tasks of the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation to the Charter97.org website:
— The first task that stood (and it was 100% completed) was to deliver a preventive strike against the Russian group in the Sudzha area, which was preparing to move to Sumy. In parallel with the preparation of the Russians for the invasion of the Kharkiv region, an attack on Sumy was being prepared. Due to the lack of forces, the Russians postponed the invasion for several months, accumulated troops in the Sudzha area, began to turn into combat formations, and our command decided to launch a preventive strike.
Our troops, which were accumulated for the defence of Sumy, in the counterattack mode hit the Russians, separated and defeated them. Hundreds of Russians surrendered. This task is completed.
Further, it all depends on the reaction and actions of the Russians. If they transfer a sufficient number of reserves from the Donetsk region, cancel the offensive on Pokrovsk, then we will stop, we can even return to the Sumy region on the protected borders. Then another task will be completed — to draw off a sufficient number of forces and means from the east of Ukraine. But so far they don't. Pressure on Pokrovsk continues. They are trying to stop the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region with their "mixed" troops. They scraped the corners — the Kaliningrad units, the Crimean units, the Akhmat, the separated parts are trying to stop our advance.
Another task is to cut communications. In Sudzha, there is a road from Vitebsk to Belgorod, along which a lot of fuel was transferred from Belarusian refineries. And then she was transferred to the east of Ukraine. Now, at a minimum, you will have to change the route, lengthen it, and deliveries will fall.
The fourth task will depend on the Russians. If there is no reaction, we will move towards the Kursk NPP. In case of reaction — we can stop and even return to the Sumy region. Of course, we will not touch the nuclear facility itself, but the redistribution of electricity, transformers and power lines can be destroyed if we approach the distance of military artillery strikes — about 15 kilometers. We are now at a distance of 25-30 kilometers. That is another challenge.
The fifth task is the deployment of contact lines along the border with Russia — to Moscow. The front will not be southern, as it is now, but will turn to the north. We have 600 kilometers of the border with Russia, now it needs to be leveled, enter the territory of the Russian Federation, create fortifications, "come off", create minefields. It is very important to bury the mines on Russian territory so that they receive such a gift for 100 years.
— A lot of conscripts are being thrown against the AFU. Eyewitnesses report that there are many dead among conscripts, many prisoners. Will this affect the perception of war in Russia? After all, one thing is the death of contract soldiers, mobilized, and here are the conscripts.
— It won't affect you in any way. Russia has a completely inert population. Even if they will send all the conscripts there. After all, a huge number of people without coercion come to the military enlistment offices and go to war. Moreover, this flow is huge, about a thousand Russians come to military enlistment offices every day. We mow thousands of them a day, and they replenish the reserves. Therefore, the destruction of conscripts will not bring any shocks.
Stray bullets don't care who they hit — a conscript, or an Akhmat fighter. Therefore, there is only one option — everyone who will be thrown into this meat grinder will be grounded. The conscripts too. Why do they throw conscripts there? This is the territory of Russia, the federal law is not violated. Secondly, they have no other troops to protect it. The conscripts held weapons in their hands before at least, in comparison with the militia. The Russians are in no hurry to transfer troops from the east of Ukraine. Some units were transferred, but at the company level, the brigades were not removed from the front.
— Let's talk about Lukashenka. He first allegedly withdrew troops from the border with Ukraine, and they began to accuse him of treason, now he allegedly transferred troops (but there is information that he only made an appearance). Why is he so rushed?
— Lukashenka does not want to get into the mess and throw the Belarusian army, which is already not the largest, into this furnace. The Russian can hope that their women can give birth to more children. In Belarus, every military professional counts.
It is unprofitable for Lukashenka to burn his troops somewhere. He will try to hold them in different ways, trying to "loop away from the task". Lukashenka is making "loops" like a rabbit from a hound. He tries to jump out from under the pressure of Putin. Will he succeed? We'll never know. Putin has a catastrophic shortage of troops in the Kursk direction. Therefore, he will put pressure on Lukashenka. He can squeeze out some weapons, ammunition, and, perhaps, some mobile troops, for example, assault brigades.