ISW Explains Why Lukashenka Pulling Troops Towards Border With Ukraine
- 27.08.2024, 8:37
The usurper may lose power.
The pulling of Belarus' armed forces to the border with Ukraine is aimed at distracting and stretching the AFU along a wider front line. At the same time, Belarusian troops are not likely to enter Ukraine because of the constraints faced by the dictator of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka.
This conclusion was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts believe that serious preparations for a major Belarusian invasion of Ukraine have not yet been observed.
Intelligence data shows that Belarusian combat units usually operate at only 30-40 per cent of their total end strength and rely on mobilisation to staff the units. Therefore, preparations for invading Ukraine would be more evident as Belarus has not yet announced a general mobilisation.
According to analysts, the scale of a hypothetical Belarusian attack would likely be limited. ISW believes that Belarusian forces could conduct this operation to distract the Ukrainian military from their efforts elsewhere along the front line, thereby supporting the Russian occupiers.
It is also noted that the invasion of Ukraine by Belarus, or even Belarus' military involvement in the war, would weaken dictator Lukashenka's ability to defend his regime. ISW previously assessed that Lukashenka is highly unlikely to risk entering a war with Ukraine, which could weaken his regime or dramatically increase Belarus' internal discontent.
Lukashenka will probably want to maintain control over public sentiment ahead of ‘elections’ in early 2025, as well as access to his military to suppress any election-related protests, as he did in late 2020. The dictator is probably also seeking to avoid being drawn into Russia's war with Ukraine to prevent the domestic political costs that such involvement would entail.
The possible mobilisation of Belarus, expected battlefield casualties, further international isolation of Belarus and negative economic consequences are likely to increase public discontent and negate Lukashenka's efforts aimed at usurping power.