Ukrainian Colonel: This Has Not Happened Since World War II

• 19.09.2024, 15:31

Several unique precedents of the Ukrainian strike on the Russian warehouse in Toropets.

Ukrainian drones hit the 107th arsenal of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Federation, which stored a large amount of various ammunition.

A successful drone raid took place near the city of Toropets in the Tver region of the Russian Federation.

How will this attack affect the capabilities of the occupiers? The Charter97.org website asked the Ukrainian military analyst, retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Petro Chernik to assess the situation:

— It will have a very serious impact, I fully share the point of view that this is a record strike. It has several unique precedents, which have certainly not happened in the military history of the 21st century, and in some sense even since World War II.

The first point is that this is the largest depot in the European part of the Russian Federation. The second point is that it is 500 kilometers away, which is a lot. The third point is that about a hundred unmanned systems flew there, which raises the question of how they got there.

It turns out that their vaunted air defense system, such installations as the S-300, S-400, S-350, long-range strategic systems, not to mention the short-range ones, such systems as the Buk, Osa, Pantsir-S, Tor-1 or Tor-M, are not capable of combating such unmanned attacks and covering a strategic facility.

This is in fact a strategic facility, even by the most conservative estimates, up to 30 thousand tons of various artillery ammunition, missiles and the like were concentrated there. There is even information that North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles, Iskanders, S-300 and S-400 missiles, not to mention 122-mm shells for the BM-21 Grad and others were stored there.

All of this is still detonating, even a small earthquake measuring up to three points on the Richter scale was recorded. And this is equal to the explosion of a 15-kiloton atomic bomb. Let me remind you that the first atomic bomb that exploded in Hiroshima had exactly 15 kilotons, so that you understand how gigantic this release of energy is.

Now about what this will affect. It will 100% affect the northern group of troops that are in the Kursk region, Bryansk region and Rostov region. This will be especially noticeable in the Kursk region, because it was from this warehouse that the Russians were supplied with standard ammunition for the D-20, D-30 artillery mounts and the most important mass-produced BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system. There will definitely be a shortage of shells there.

So we have cautious optimism that in this regard we must fundamentally hold out until the wet weather cycle. Then no one will be able to move much — neither us, nor them. In this situation, when the movements of the Russians are constrained, it will be easier for us to hold the Kursk bridgehead. Consequently, Putin's direct order to liberate the Kursk region before his birthday will not be carried out.

And here a political moment appears — Putin will once again show himself as a leader who cannot be responsible for his words and ensure that his orders are carried out. And this improves the ground for the transfer of power.

I will give just a few more figures for a better understanding of what actually happened there. Conditionally (maybe in reality it was not quite like that, but we have to build some analytical constructs), if there were only 22-mm shells for BM-21 “Grad” in the amount of 30 thousand tons, then this is 460 thousand units, and this is 10 months of combat at the rate at which they use these shells. And if, conditionally, there were 82-mm shells for mortars, also 30 thousand tons, then this is 10 million pieces, in this expression it is a year and a half of combat.

Of course, these are conditional figures, everything is actually of a mixed nature, that is, there was everything and a lot of it. But the very fact that this operation was carried out makes it phenomenal, and this is no exaggeration. Let's repeat and consolidate the main points: a breakthrough of the Russian air defense; achieving an explosion that is equal to a 15-kiloton explosion of a nuclear bomb; a colossal reduction in reserves to support the northern group.

And the final touch — this depot is relatively new, it was allegedly built using the latest technology, after its reconstruction even the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation visited it. This means that Russia continues to have colossal problems with the siphoning off the military budget. And we can only welcome this.

— Z-propaganda accuses Shoigu's former deputy Bulgakov, who is now under arrest, of allegedly bragging about this warehouse on television and giving away its coordinates. How likely is this?

— I fully share the point of view that this is how it was, that he is one of the authors of the decline in the quality of construction of caponiers, bunkers for storing this ammunition. Remember the fundamental rule — the more squabbles there are between the key players in the branches of power, the better for us.

That is, the situation should worsen for them in every possible sense: from the fact that we began to burn out their oil industry, to the high tone of internal confrontation, which sooner or later will develop not only in prison terms.

I have no doubt that there will be fatal cases, when someone's heart will ache, someone will drown, someone will commit suicide, and so on.

I will also say that from the point of view of us, Ukrainians (as well as for you, Belarusians), there are no good Russians. They have one goal — to destroy and enslave us.