Everything Is Rotating Quite Fast

• ANDREI SANNIKOV
• 26.09.2024, 11:38

The coming changes will determine the fate of several generations.

It is clear that world turbulence is increasing even with the naked eye and without any analysts and interpreters.

And everything is rotating quite fast in our region with the war unleashed by Russia.

Changes are inevitable, and very soon.

Moreover, these changes will determine the geopolitical measures in Europe and in non-Europe for at least several future generations.

In which direction will these upheavals carry Belarus away – that is the main question for us!

Today's Belarus

The purulent tumor of the dictatorship became inflamed and swollen in such a way that it prevents everyone without exception from breathing.

The most loyal servants, of course, still portray loyalty to their master, but they themselves are increasingly preparing for the fact that the swollen abscess will burst soon.

And they see for themselves, as in that anecdote, "two ways".

1 (unreal) – try to keep everything under the control of someone from the inner circle.

2 (treacherous) – to completely subordinate Belarus to the Kremlin, up to the Kremlin governor.

On the first path, the created system of dictatorship will not allow simply replacing the current dictator with another figure. In addition, while continuing to maniacally cleanse the opposition inside Belarus, Lukashenka created a bunch of gangster special services, each of them able to eliminate him before eliminating and cleaning each other.

Removing Lukashenka from this system will most likely lead to showdowns, probably bloody ones, and is unlikely to allow one of the groups to gain victory.

The scenario of the second way – the re-subordination of the dictatorship to the Kremlin's masters – presupposes the Kremlin's reliance on pro-Russian forces inside Belarus, which, after use, will definitely be cleaned up.

Thus, both of these “ways” are not just dead-end, but also suicidal.

It would be good if the establishment, the part of it that is secretly tired of the African dictatorship in Europe, retained sober thinking and decency, began preparations for the normalization of the entire situation in Belarus.

This is real and will be in demand very soon.

External Factors

Two external factors affect our situation.

The dominant Russian and low-level Western.

The Russian one dominates under Lukashenka and only thanks to Lukashenka. Now, during the war, this factor has reached its peak and threatens to eliminate Lukashenka.

On the contrary, the West retains an untapped potential, which can not only keep Belarus from sliding into the quagmire of lawlessness and Russian influence, but also help it become completely independent of the Kremlin.

The democratic West has accumulated thirty years of experience in interacting with the Lukashenka dictatorship. Unfortunately, this experience is based on a covert recognition that Belarus is in Russia's sphere of influence, with which it is not worth quarreling.

Such an approach to Belarus through Russia for many years did not yield any results other than corruption, led to an increase in tension in the region and ultimately allowed Russia and Lukashenka to unleash a war against Ukraine.

The Kremlin's war against Ukraine is a war in Europe, a war against European values.

In order to stop it, it is necessary not only to resolutely help Ukraine, but also to get rid of the dictatorship in Belarus.

To do this, it is time to include Belarus in the agenda not random experts from analytical centers and foundations, which do not always provide clear information about the situation in Belarus, but leaders of democratic states who are able to adequately assess risks and adjust policies taking into account all previous mistakes.

It should be recalled that Sovietologists and Kremlinologists who closely studied the USSR did not expect the beginning of the collapse of the totalitarian empire and many other events that followed it.

The time changed abruptly on February 24, 2022, when a large-scale war against Ukraine began.

If we turn to history, unfortunately, the long history of the dictatorship in Belarus, the policy of democratic states towards this dictatorship and the perception of Belarusians fighting it, we will find one seemingly strange, but in fact explainable pattern: at the suggestion of "experts", the West has always looked for the weakest figures or configurations in Belarus among the opposition, or created them with the participation of non-opposition figures, for example, the liberal democratic party, or singling out the Communists as the main force of the opposition.

It's easier to deal with the weak, they are ready to obey other people's plans, even the most delusional ones, such as fairy tales that democracy in Belarus will come from Russia.

The persistence with which the "experts" and "consultants" promoted the weakest figures and centers suggests that this was the goal of all Western policy: to do everything so that there was nothing, and most importantly – not to irritate Russia.

Role of the “Leader”

These "experts" managed to find the most convenient figure from Belarus, the most suitable for any of their geopolitical plans, for which, I suspect, the independence of Belarus is not a priority soon.

This is very dangerous today, as the war in Ukraine may end with a deal that will bring geopolitical changes.

According to the logic of these "experts", which is already broadcast by some Western politicians, with a "big deal" in Europe with Russia to end the war against Ukraine, it is easier to agree to Belarus in the Kremlin's sphere of influence than to discuss the status of the territories occupied by Russia to the detriment of Ukraine.

This development is actively promoted by the Latushka-Tsikhanouskaia group, which declared itself the only Belarusian opposition in the world.

You do not need to have any special vision to see that this whole group persistently works as an external appendage of the regime. Their actions largely contribute to the fact that the situation in Belarus today is simply terrible not only in comparison with all periods of Lukashenka's rule, but even in comparison with Latin American and African dictatorships.

The rhetoric of this group can be quite oppositional, but if you give only the facts, you can see that the results of their activities are completely opposite to their rhetoric and promises.

Firstly, the self-declared "leader" is the only registered candidate in the "presidential election" in history who left Belarus at the very beginning of the protests, also with the help of Lukashenka's special services.

Secondly, the entire group gathered around the "leader" at the first, most important stage of the 2020 revolution, called not to go to protests.

Thirdly, at the first stage of our revolution, this group of "leaders" campaigned against the imposition of sanctions for the release of political prisoners and the cessation of political persecution. Paradoxically, because of these actions, there are no international sanctions against the criminal regime in connection with inhuman repression to this day.

Fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh... Only blind people can ignore the outstanding contribution of this group to the creation of a really unbearable "GUBOPiK" atmosphere in Belarus and an extremely difficult situation for emigrated Belarusians in the world.

The "leader's" group created effective traps to deliver information about opponents of the regime directly to this very regime. The plan "Peramoha" ("Victory"), "Rabochy Rukh" ("Labour Movement"), "Personnel Reserve", "Black Book of Belarus", Raman Pratasevich, "elections" to another self-styled body "Coordination Council" and many other projects with the support of the "leader" provided the punishers with information about thousands of Belarusian citizens who are not loyal to the Lukashenka regime. On the basis of this information, arrests are still taking place in Belarus.

Repressions against Belarusians around the world: problems with documents, denials of asylum, deportations, discrimination – all this is the direct responsibility of the "leader" group. They themselves declare this all the time and, moreover, strive to cut off any other channels for discussing these issues except for beloved themselves.

The lack of a strong position on sanctions for the release of all political prisoners allowed the regime to continue its repressions with impunity, and the West was in no hurry with sanctions for the release of the repressed.

And the story of the mythical passport? It simply could not appear, and this was clear to everyone who was at least a little familiar with international law. But no, this whole scam was persistently promoted by scammers.

Let's call a spade a spade: it was the lie about the fake “passport” that caused the vile reaction of the Lukashenka regime, which instantly complicated the lives of hundreds of thousands of Belarusians abroad, not only in terms of obtaining and renewing a passport of a citizen of Belarus, but also in terms of performing extremely important and sometimes vital notarial actions.

The activities of the "leader" group today contribute to the inhuman and mocking experiments of the regime on political prisoners, which seems to release them (sincerely happy for everyone who comes out of hell), but at the same time intensifies the persecution and arrests of new disloyal ones.

Getting Out of the Hybrid Impasse

In our hybrid time, Belarus managed to create a hybrid situation and a hybrid opposition, largely consisting of prominent regime figures delegated to this opposition.

The way out of this gloom, which would suit the majority, should be sought at the intersection of the interests of this very majority, i.e. the people of Belarus and those pro-government and opposition groups that will help to get out of the long-term hopelessness of the whole country, and will not work to prolong the dictatorship of the criminal minority over the majority.

Three main groups will influence the near future of Belarus.

– The imprisoned opposition activists, heterogeneous, but in the face of the most vivid and consistent leaders, enjoying the support of people.

– Opposition in exile, including emigrated businesses capable of promoting change and reform, as well as volunteer heroes fighting for Ukraine.

– The current officials, including special services and business, with the exception of real criminals.

There will be goodwill or circumstances will force it, but the interaction of these three groups is the key to a non-violent way out of the protracted 30-year crisis on the path of creation and getting rid of common hatred.

Belarus is extremely important for Europe, international peace and security. Its positive impact on geopolitics will be much stronger than the current negative one. Belarus is no less important for Europe than Ukraine, because the Kremlin keeps the territory of Belarus with all its might through Lukashenka. The Kremlin needs this territory as a base, not only for the war against Ukraine, but also for destabilization, and in the future, a possible war against our neighbors — Lithuania, Latvia, Poland.

If the West in August 2020, during our revolution, had reacted sharply to violence in the center of Europe, supported the democratic aspirations of Belarusian people, helped stop the atrocities and shootings of peaceful demonstrators, which would have pushed the establishment to changes, there would have been no war in Ukraine. Without a reliable bridgehead, Moscow would not have dared to attack Kyiv.

In 2020, Belarus was still a participant in NATO's Partnership for Peace program, which involves cooperation for peace based on the principles of democracy, not violence. The heads of member states at the NATO summit in 2021 said that "events in Belarus affect stability in the region," but it did not go further than the statements.

The indecision of Western democracies regarding the dictatorship in Belarus, which threatens international security, the indistinctness of political opposition leaders, participants in the 2020 "presidential elections", finally untied the hands of the Lukashenka regime.

Today's humanitarian catastrophe in Belarus may lead to even more hot conflicts in the entire region, which Lukashenka is increasingly talking about, fully following Putin's ideas.

The growing tension due to the actions of the punishers can cause a social explosion In Belarus, or it can lead to a coup from the top.

The presence of international peacekeeping forces of democratic states on the territory of Belarus, for example, under the auspices of NATO, can prevent bloodshed and stop crimes against humanity.

In a situation of explosive instability, which may soon arise on the territory of Belarus under the influence of both external and internal factors, the presence of peacekeepers, let's call them BYFOR, would prevent a further increase in violence in Belarus and in the region.

In Belarus, among other things, this would create the necessary conditions for holding fair elections with the participation of all Belarusian political forces, including today's representatives of the authorities.

Politicians of democratic countries should pay closer attention to Belarus, recognize the importance of our country for maintaining international peace and make important strategic decisions without entrusting them to "experts" from the funds.

Belarus is destined for a different future than its current collective-farm present.

The future of a free and respected state.

We have the wisdom and experience to stand together on the way to normalization, not back to the underworld.

The only thing to remember is that there is very little time left to make decisions.

Andrei Sannikov, the Coordinator of the European Belarus Civil Campaign