Natallia Radzina About 'Shaheds' Over Belarus: There Are Two Versions
- 5.09.2024, 13:37
Did Putin allow Lukashenka to train with Russian drones?
Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org Natallia Radzina became a guest of the YouTube show by the famous Russian journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov. One of the topics of conversation was the Russian "Shaheds" over Belarus. Why do they fly into our country? Natallia Radzina announced two versions:
— The first is that Ukrainian electronic warfare systems work well. The second (it appeared after the first "Shahed" was shot down over Belarusian territory), that it is coordinated with Russia and the combat training of Belarusian air defence systems and the Air Force is ongoing. Allegedly, preparations are underway to escalate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
If there is an invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus again, retaliatory strikes by Ukrainian UAVs are expected. Therefore, Belarus is working out such a scenario on the "Shaheds".
Putin uses the airspace of Belarus as his own. Missiles are flying through Belarus to reach Ukrainian cities. The latest news is that the Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile flew about 100 kilometers over the territory of the Brahin and Naroulia districts of the Homel region on September 4.
The missile struck Lviv at 5:47. There, a mother and her three daughters died in a residential building.
Is there a danger of an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus? The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org spoke about the exercises that cause concern among many experts:
— In the autumn, exercises of the Regional Group of Forces are planned on the territory of Belarus. They will be conducted as part of the third stage of tactical nuclear weapons verification. It is planned to move Iskander missile systems, S-400 air defence systems, tanks and mechanized units of the Russian Armed Forces to the territory of Belarus. Belarusian Railways is preparing to accept trains with Russian weapons and troops. How many more are to come? According to preliminary estimates — about three to five battalion tactical groups. That's five or six thousand troops. If 50,000-strong Russian army entered Ukraine from Belarus in 2022, five or six thousand will not pose a threat.
However, again, we cannot say how many of them will actually enter and how many of them are on the territory of Belarus today. It is officially known that there are several thousand Russian military personnel at various airfields and training grounds. But I, for example, sources reported that they saw the Russian military in the Baranavichy district, who live in an abandoned school located next to one of the villages. They were noticed by locals in a store. They were all armed and wearing military uniforms. Perhaps they are guarding a military facility — a Russian radar station is located near Baranavichy in Hantsevichy. And, perhaps, there is some hidden accumulation of forces.
On the one hand, Lukashenka is not interested in participating in the war, on the other hand, we are well aware that no one will ask him.
Yevgeny Kiselyov asked to comment on the release of 30 Belarusian political prisoners, which took place on the eve of the conversation. Natallia Radzina believes that this step can not be called "liberalization":
— Indeed, Lukashenka has recently released about 30 political prisoners. But I must say that there are up to ten thousand political prisoners in Belarusian prisons today. There are much more people in prisons today than human rights activists and independent journalists know, the number of prisoners of conscience is huge.
Of course, it is a great happiness that some of the political prisoners were released. These are either people who are at the end of their sentence, and they were released the day before, or prisoners with serious illnesses, such as cancer of the fourth degree, brain cancer, like journalist Ksenia Lutskina, who spent four years with this diagnosis.
People are released so that they do not die in prison. After all, a large number of prisoners of conscience died in custody. We can't say the exact number. But it is known about the death of six to eight political prisoners. Therefore, prisoners are released to reduce the number of high-profile cases of actual murders in prisons.
However, people with severe diagnoses continue to be imprisoned. The repression in Belarus continues. People are arrested every day for political reasons. If the number of political prisoners decreases slightly, then the next day it increases significantly.
The Belarusian journalist believes that one of the goals of releasing political prisoners may be the Lukashenka regime's attempt to lift sanctions against Belaruskali:
— Sanctions on potassium are a very tangible restriction for the Belarusian regime. First, these sanctions were imposed for Lukashenka's participation in the war, he is still involved. Secondly, these sanctions are very important, they should never be lifted. These restrictions work.
If you remember, the UN Secretary-General said that after the ban on Belarusian potassium, famine would begin in Africa. There was no famine. The Belarusian regime was forced to reorient its markets. Markets in Europe and Ukraine were lost, potassium began to be sold at bargain prices — $150-300 per ton. Because of this dumping, the authorities were forced to increase the volume of potassium sold, which brought down prices. Sanctions against the Lukashenka regime have helped agriculture around the world, have not led to any famine, and food prices have not risen either.
Natallia Radzina advocates even more pressure on the Belarusian regime:
— If we want to release political prisoners and stop the repression, we need to issue a tough ultimatum. And such an ultimatum could be a ban on transit through the territory of Belarus. Sanctions on petroleum products were introduced, sanctions on potash fertilizers were introduced. These are the main articles of Belarusian exports. Yes, the regime bypasses it, but it also suffers losses. Even when goods go on false documents, even when Belarusian potash fertilizers go under the guise of Russian ones, we know these schemes. But the regime lost a lot as a result of these sanctions. An ultimatum that will force the release of Belarusian political prisoners may be to stop the transit of goods through the territory of Belarus.
Yevgeny Kiselyov asked how the Lukashenka regime would be destroyed. Natallia Radzina believes that the main blow to it will be inflicted by the war:
— How? If Lukashenka gets involved in the war, and there is an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus — whether Russian troops enter, whether Russian together with Belarusian — this will lead to destabilization and collapse of this regime.
Ukraine will strike at military facilities in Belarus initially. This is not only a radar station, but also a communication center of the Navy located in Vileika, Belarusian refineries, air bases from which Russian aircraft will take off, railway junctions, where trains with the Russian forces will arrive. If Lukashenka somehow maneuvers and does not get involved in the war, there will be an inevitable process of weakening Russia as a result of the war. The support of the Lukashenka regime by the Russian Federation will fall. We are well aware that this "comrade" is held in power exclusively for Russian money, subsidies, cheap oil and gas. And this will also lead to the destruction of the regime.
In no case should Lukashenka be allowed to swing on his favorite hesitation between the West and Russia. It's necessary to strengthen sanctions against him, not to lift them until all political prisoners — thousands of people who are in Belarusian prisons are released. Sanctions must not be lifted until Lukashenka leaves the criminal war against Ukraine.
Anything can happen in Belarus. Starting from the establishment coup, which will begin if Lukashenka is still alive by this time, ending with people taking to the streets. The regime will collapse. People who will try to seize power after the fall of Lukashenka and keep it in a dictatorial way will not succeed. They won't be able to survive. We will have to cooperate with the West. The Belarusians, of course, will rise up in this situation and take advantage of the chance that will arise.
Some Belarusian units may also go to Minsk, including the Kalinouski Regiment. Perhaps it will be Ukrainian units. After the invasion of the AFU in the Kursk region, we understand that different scenarios are possible, which we will learn about after the fact. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are able to take unexpected steps, and Lukashenka is afraid of this.
I think that the exercises of the Regional Group of Forces may be related to the Kursk operation and Lukashenka's fear that this may happen again in the Belarusian direction. By the way, Minsk is very afraid of the frequent raids of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Bryansk region, which borders the Homel region of Belarus. This is another Lukashenka's nightmare.
The Belarusian journalist spoke about the huge problems in the Belarusian economy, in particular, the acute shortage of personnel:
— The entire economy lacks workers: in industry, healthcare, medicine, agriculture, education. Lukashenka personally confirmed this, offering to oblige third- and fourth-year students to work for enterprises.
I learned the paradoxical news, which pleased me that there was a shortage of personnel in the KGB. And in one of the departments, it reaches 40%. Old people are retiring, and young people do not want to work for the KGB. There is a brain drain, young people leave, enter European universities. After 2020, between 500,000 and 700,000 people left.
Funds are also fleeing Belarus. A lot of business was relocated from the country. Including large companies, including IT. They went to European countries, there was a loss in tax payments.
Did the West pay less attention to Belarus? Natallia Radzina agrees with this statement:
— Against the background of the war in Ukraine, probably, our suffering to Western politicians seems insignificant. Although, I believe that suffering cannot be compared. People go through torture in Belarus, many die. We must not turn a blind eye to this. This, of course, is our task — Belarusian journalists, human rights advocates and the opposition, to constantly talk and remind about political prisoners. They can be saved by increasing pressure on the Lukashenka regime. There are no other opportunities — you cannot take to the streets, storm prisons, freeing these people. Only the pressure of sanctions.
Will the liberation of Belarus be a trigger for Putin's regime change? Natallia Radzina told who first voiced this idea:
— Once I heard this phrase at the GLOBSEC conference in Slovakia, where I met the famous American analyst Zbigniew Brzezinski. I heard this phrase from him and quoted it on the Charter97.org website. Zbigniew Brzezinski said that the liberation of Belarus would lead to the fall of the dictatorship in Russia. For Russians, this will be an example that if the regime in Belarus has changed and the country is moving to Europe, it is necessary for Russians to live more civilized.
We saw the relationship that if there are protests in Minsk, then this affects the protest activity in Russia, in the opposite direction it also worked. Again, Minsk has long been a laboratory for Putin, where he tested various methods of pressure on the opposition. Maybe this also works in the opposite direction — if Belarus is free, it will have an impact on the mood in Russia. Undoubtedly, the liberation of Belarus will deprive Putin of a profitable bridgehead from which he today threatens Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
It should be understood that Belarus is an independent state, and secondly, it is a key one. Belarus as part of the European Union and NATO is a guarantee of a safe and free Europe. Europe should not give Belarus to Russia.